Tom Lee: The net effect of the war on the U.S. economy is positive, and the market has already begun pricing in favorable outcomes.

ME News, April 15 (UTC+8): In an interview with CNBC, Tom Lee, Chairman of Ethereum treasury company BitMine, said, “The stock market remains resilient because even in the face of war, the economy is actually performing better than expected.” He pointed out that defense spending is currently about $30 billion per month and may rise to $60 billion per month in the future, which would have a significant stimulative effect on the economy. Meanwhile, an increase in oil prices of $20 per month adds only about $12 billion in additional burden to households. “Overall, the war is actually helping corporate profits right now.”

Tom Lee cited historical precedents: “Looking back at World War II, the stock market bottomed out in May 1942, just five months after the U.S. entered the war. At that time, there were not even any U.S. troops that had set foot on the battlefields of Europe or the Pacific.” He believes that “the market is very good at digesting outcomes in advance. With the stock market rising right now, it means the market is pricing in a favorable outcome. Although I can’t clearly explain the specific reason, this is the signal conveyed by market behavior.”

As for the current market’s three major variables—------the Iran war, corporate earnings reports, and interest rates—Tom Lee said, “Of the three, only war can create tail events in two directions, so this is the variable that’s most worth closely watching.” In terms of sector allocation, he remains bullish on the energy track and noted that energy security has been one of the most important structural themes in recent years. (Source: ChainCatcher)