this might be a bold prediction:

but I think JUP goes easily back to $0.4–$0.5 if they fix ONE thing
why?
buybacks & burn work but only when unlock pressure is low
→ that’s why pump didn’t work
→ that’s why hyperliquid does work
it has to be deflationary (+ no fear of unlocks)
Jupiter finally moved in that direction with net-zero emissions. In theory, they could buy back +20% of supply over the next few years
but here’s the problem (maybe two):
Jupiter’s revenue is trending down, Hyperliquid’s is stable (Hyperliquid also generates ~10x more revenue than Jupiter)
and it gets worse:
~60% of Jupiter’s revenue comes from perps and even tho they're the 3d biggest perps earner they only generate 1% of the total perps volume
Since the canceled airdrop, even more users left Jupiter Perps, and honestly, it's understandable given the high fees and only three pairs.
Perps revenue is among the top three earnings in crypto and if they want to stop the downtrend of revenue, there's just one way out (no card, no juplend, etc.)
second issue: token utility
JUP still lacks a strong reason to hold (→ compare that to Hyperliquid’s fee rebates model)
I really hope they cooked in the background with perps because if they did the JUP token is coded for a huge rally