$ETH ‌The U.S. Department of Defense will hold a press conference tonight at 20:00.

Jin10 Data, May 5: U.S. Department of Defense: Secretary of Defense Hegseth and Chairman of the U.S. Joint Chiefs of Staff Kane will hold a press conference for the “Epic Fury Operation” at 8:00 a.m. Eastern Time tomorrow morning (20:00 tonight Beijing time). Tonight’s press conference is bearish for ETH, amplifying short-term volatility and making it more prone to falling than rising; but it is a “short-term shock,” not a trend reversal.

### I. Why it’s bearish (3 core reasons)

1. **High Beta risk-asset characteristics:** ETH is more sensitive and more volatile than BTC; geopolitical tensions → risk appetite cools → funds first sell ETH.
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2. **Inflation and liquidity pressure:** The situation escalates → oil prices jump → inflation expectations pick up → rate-cut expectations are delayed, with higher interest rates lasting longer, directly suppressing ETH valuation.
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3. **The event-expectation gap:** In April, it was already called “victory + ceasefire.” Tonight it opens a high-spec press conference again → this is not an ending; it’s an escalation, with uncertainty being repriced.

### II. Impact on ETH (vs. BTC)

- **BTC:** Has a “digital gold” safe-haven narrative, and its drawdowns are usually smaller (-2%~-4%).
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- **ETH:** Has a higher proportion of DeFi and institutional funds, and is more speculative; its declines are often larger (-4%~-8%), with extremely volatile moves in the short term.

### III. Key points of tonight’s press conference (determining strength vs. weakness)

- **Strong bearish (down 5%+):** Announces escalation of actions / expands strikes / blockades straits; oil prices surge to 120+; ETH quickly probes down toward the 2150~2200 support.
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- **Neutral-to-bearish (down 2%~4%):** Maintains the status quo and reiterates “victory,” with no new actions; ETH trades sideways in the 2200~2300 range.
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- **Bearish fully priced out (small rise / rebound):** Releases negotiation signals / expresses a calming stance; safe-haven sentiment cools, and ETH rebounds and repairs.

### IV. Summary in one sentence and what to do

** baseline: Bearish. ETH is prone to pullbacks, and volatility is amplified; but it does not change the medium-term structure, and there’s a chance for recovery after a sharp selloff**.

- **Positioning:** Reduce exposure and cut leverage—defense first; set stop-losses at 2200/2150.