Recently, I see everyone linking ETF capital flows and U.S. stock market risk appetite to interpret crypto price movements—sounds lively, but what I care more about is: when interest rates tighten, the market’s “daring to push forward” mentality will fade, and positions unconsciously become more chaotic; when interest rates loosen, emotions rise and it’s easy to chase. To put it simply, macro transmission to me boils down to two things: either leverage less and keep some cash for opportunities, or take small positions gradually and don’t be pushed by narratives.

What I fear most isn’t slow progress, but chaos—once it’s chaotic, people start clicking unfamiliar links, switching wallets, authorizing a bunch of contracts, and in the end, it’s not the market that causes losses, but getting caught in phishing scams. Anyway, I’d rather miss out now than wake up in the middle of the night trying to fix keys. That’s all for now.