Interest rates, to put it simply, are "the rent on money." When they go up, everyone's risk appetite automatically decreases: for the same position, fewer people are willing to withstand drawdowns, leverage shrinks first, altcoins shrink next, and eventually even mainstream players start saying "let's wait and see." My current process is basically to first look at dollar liquidity and short-term interest rate expectations, then decide on position limits; otherwise, when sentiment heats up, it's easy to treat positions as faith. Recently, cross-chain bridges have been hacked again, and oracles have experienced abnormal quotes; the kind of "wait for confirmation" consensus in the group is actually quite real: it's not that everyone suddenly matured, but that after the cost of capital increased, the penalty for a mistake became more expensive. The market now feels like an hourglass or a faucet—flowing slowly. No matter how good the story, it has to pass the data test first.