The current sharp fluctuations in the crude oil market are by no means a top signal, but rather a buildup of bullish momentum driven by geopolitical crises. The ongoing escalation of military confrontation in the Strait of Hormuz, the intensifying risk of supply disruptions, and a single-day price swing of over 5% reflect a severe imbalance in the global energy supply and demand pattern. A breakthrough rally is imminent, with targets of 115-120 expected, and in extreme scenarios, a push toward the 150 high is possible.

The Strait of Hormuz, a vital chokepoint for global oil transportation, accounts for 20%-30% of the world's maritime oil shipments, with 90% of oil exports from Persian Gulf oil-producing countries relying on it. Currently, the military confrontation in the strait has escalated from "friction" to "showdown": on May 4th, Iran fired missiles to repel a U.S. warship, with both Iran and the U.S. sticking to their narratives, making navigation obstruction an established fact.

Recently, single-day oil price swings exceeding 5% may seem chaotic and disorderly, but in fact, they are healthy fluctuations within a bullish trend. Every major decline is an opportunity for panic selling to exit and for major funds to accumulate positions. The core support levels have never been broken.

Trading suggestions:
Enter the range of 105-107; stop-loss at 100;
First target 110-115, the upper boundary of the previous fluctuation zone, a short-term strong resistance. Breaking through will open an accelerated upward channel;
Second target 115-120, geopolitical crisis premium, a reasonable pricing zone for supply and demand gaps, and also the core target of this round of bullish momentum.