- Bitcoin Price Expectations: Bitcoin hits three-month high driven by derivatives surge:

- Bitcoin price rose above $80,000 on Monday, the highest since late January.
- The US-listed spot ETF recorded inflows of $153.87 million last week, marking the fifth consecutive week of positive flows.
- Traders should exercise caution, as the Bitcoin rally is fueled by persistent demand for futures while spot markets remain in contraction.

Reports indicate that the current market structure relies more on speculation than fundamental factors, reflecting the pattern seen at the start of the 2022 bear market.

Bitcoin (BTC) surged above $80,000 on Monday, reaching its highest level since late January. Institutional demand supports this rise, with ETFs recording over $153 million in inflows last week, marking the fifth straight week of positive flows. Meanwhile, Bitcoin's price approaches a key psychological level. Analysts note that the current market structure leans more toward speculation than fundamentals, echoing the pattern observed at the beginning of the 2022 bear market.

- Institutional demand remains strong
Bitcoin continues to rise, reaching a high of $80,635 on Monday after a slight stabilization last week. Institutional demand supports this increase, remaining robust. Data from SoSoValue shows Bitcoin ETFs experienced $153.87 million in inflows last week, marking the fifth consecutive weekly inflow since early April. If this trend continues this week, Bitcoin could see further price gains.

Weekly chart of net spot Bitcoin flows into ETFs. Source: SoSoValue
Driven by Derivatives

CryptoQuant’s weekly report last week highlighted that Bitcoin’s April rally was entirely driven by growing demand for perpetual futures contracts.

The chart below shows that the recent surge in the “king of cryptocurrencies” was more of a speculative rebound than a fundamental rise, as spot demand remained low.

CryptoQuant analyst pointed out that “the demand for perpetual futures was the sole driver of Bitcoin’s April rally, while apparent spot demand declined throughout, a pattern historically associated with unsustainable price gains during bear markets.”

He added: “This divergence — rising futures demand alongside declining spot demand — indicates that the price increase is driven by leverage rather than new coin accumulation. Historically, such formations lack the structural basis to sustain price gains and often end with a correction as futures positions are liquidated.”

- The current market structure reflects the start of the 2022 bear market.
The current market structure mirrors the pattern seen at the beginning of the 2022 bear market, when demand for perpetual futures surged while spot demand declined simultaneously, a formation that preceded a prolonged price decline.

The analyst concluded that “while similarity doesn’t guarantee an identical outcome, it confirms that the current demand structure aligns with past bearish patterns. Analyzing on-chain demand, consistently applied across cycles, identifies this pattern as a reliable early indicator of price fragility.”

The current Bitcoin market structure resembles the rally patterns seen during the 2022 bear market. Source: CryptoQuant

- Bitcoin Price Outlook: Bitcoin rises to a key psychological level
Bitcoin is trading above $79,700 as of writing on Monday, maintaining a short-term bullish trend with support above the 50- and 100-day exponential moving averages (EMAs), clustered around mid-$70,000.

Bitcoin also trades above the 50% Fibonacci retracement level (drawn from the January high to the February low) at approximately $78,962 and the top of the parallel horizontal channel near $75,680, indicating the broader bullish trend remains intact. The strong daily RSI around 65 and a recovering MACD suggest bullish momentum is still positive.

On the upside, immediate resistance is at the psychological $80,000 level, followed by the 200-day EMA near $82,193 and the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement at about $83,437, before a higher horizontal barrier around $84,410.

On the downside, initial support is at the 50% Fibonacci retracement at $78,962, with additional demand expected near the upper channel boundary around $75,680, supported by the 100-day EMA just below $75,900. Deeper corrections could test the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement and the 50-day EMA in the $74,432–$74,487 zone before reaching the broader channel bottom and key support around $63,000.