I. Overview of Mainstream Cryptocurrency Market Trends

1. Bitcoin (BTC)

Price Performance:
During the trading session on May 4th, it **touched a high of 80,100**, currently around 79,812 (+2.17%), from the April 30th low of $74,277, a total rebound of about 7.5% over five days.

Key Resistance and Support:
Strong resistance zone: 80,000–82,000 (overlap of True Market Mean, short-term holding costs, and average spot ETF costs).

If broken through: target upward to 84,000–88,000; if it pulls back: possible retest of 76,000–77,000 support levels.

2. Ethereum (ETH)

Price Performance:
Rising simultaneously to $2,371.95 (+3.01%), with a 24-hour increase significantly higher than Bitcoin, but still lagging behind BTC’s strength.

Market Divergence Reasons:
Bitcoin spot ETF net inflow for the day: $629 million (total of $2.44 billion in April), while Ethereum ETF has recently experienced continuous net outflows, with funds more inclined to allocate BTC as a “cryptocurrency reserve asset.”

Institutional positioning of ETH leans toward “cyclical assets,” with short-term rebound momentum insufficient, but on-chain Layer 2 networks (Arbitrum, Optimism) have total locked value exceeding $18 billion, providing fundamental support.

II. Core Driving Factors Analysis

1. Continuous Institutional Capital Influx
Whale Accumulation: Addresses holding over 1,000 BTC bought a total of 270k BTC over 30 days, the largest single-month purchase since 2013, indicating long-term strategic positioning.

ETF Inflow Support: On May 1st, the US Bitcoin spot ETF saw a single-day net inflow of $629 million, a new high since October 2025, with BlackRock adding nearly 200k BTC in the month.

2. Short Squeeze Triggering Short-term Surge
After Bitcoin broke through 80,000, the entire market experienced a **liquidation of $159.6 million in 24 hours**, with short positions accounting for 60.5% (96.59 million), accelerating price upward through cascading effects.

3. Changes in Macro Policy Expectations
Fed Chair Transition: Powell will step down on May 15th, with markets pre-pricing a “dovish policy shift,” with some funds betting on upside potential for risk assets.

Legislative Progress: The US “Clarity Act” has reached a compromise on stablecoin yield provisions, potentially clarifying the cryptocurrency regulatory framework and boosting market confidence.

III. Risks and Market Outlook

1. Short-term Key Observation Points
Resistance zone at 80,000–82,000: failure to hold above could lead to a quick retreat to 76,000–77,000.

Fed Chair Transition on May 15th: The hawkish stance of new Chair Kevin Warsh may trigger policy expectation adjustments.

2. Mid- to Long-term Logic
Institutional Allocation Trend: Bitcoin is shifting from a “speculative asset” to an institutional reserve asset, with BlackRock’s holdings accounting for 3.8% of BTC’s total supply.

Regulatory Certainty Increase: If the “Clarity Act” passes, it will clarify SEC and CFTC regulatory responsibilities, providing a framework for industry compliance.

IV. Trading Recommendations

BTC Bullish Strategy:
Break above 82,000 and hold could **add positions toward the 84,000–88,000 target zone**; if it falls below 77,000, caution is needed for short-term correction.

ETH Rebound Opportunity:
Watch the 2,500–2,700 resistance zone; if BTC remains strong and Layer 2 ecosystems become more active, ETH’s rebound potential may open up.

Risk Control:
Avoid chasing highs; current market volatility has increased (24-hour volatility over 3%), strict stop-loss measures are necessary.

Geopolitical factors (such as the Strait of Hormuz situation) and Federal Reserve policies remain key variables influencing the market.

The current trend reflects a structurally driven institutional-led rally, but short-term overbought correction risks should be watched. Investors should focus on core assets like BTC and ETH, avoiding blindly chasing highly volatile altcoins.