I just came across something that many crypto traders completely underestimate: the Benner cycle. Sounds old-fashioned, I know—a farmer from the 19th century as a financial prophet. But listen to me, because this could actually be relevant to your trading strategy.

Samuel Benner wasn’t an economist or a Wall Street type, but an American farmer who was involved in pig breeding. What set him apart, though, was this: he went through multiple financial crises and booms, and instead of simply accepting them, he began studying the patterns behind them. After years of observation, he published his book in 1875 with a provocatively sounding thesis—that financial markets swing in predictable cycles.

The Benner cycle basically works like this: there are three types of years. The “A” years are panic years—1927, 1945, 1965, 1981, 1999, 2019—and Benner said that 2035 and 2053 could become similar. In these years, economic chaos breaks out. The “B” years are peak selling times—1926, 1945, 1962, 1980, 2007, 2026—when assets are overvalued and it’s smart to reduce positions. And then the “C” years are buying opportunities—1931, 1942, 1958, 1985, 2012—when everything is at rock bottom and assets are dirt cheap.

Benner originally worked with commodity prices, but modern traders have long since adapted his model to stocks, bonds, and—yes—cryptocurrencies. And honestly: when I look at Bitcoin and the broader crypto landscape, I can clearly see these cyclical moves again. Booms, crashes, euphoria, panic—those are the exact patterns Benner described.

This is especially interesting for us as crypto traders because the Benner cycle gives us a longer-term perspective. Instead of staring at charts every day, we can ask ourselves: Which phase of the cycle are we in right now? Bitcoin’s four-year halving cycle fits surprisingly well into this pattern. If we understand that markets go through emotional extremes—panic at the lows, euphoria at the highs—then we can use those extremes strategically rather than getting overwhelmed by them.

The practical takeaway: In the “B” years, when prices are high, we should consider whether it’s time to reduce positions. In the “C” years, when the market is at rock bottom, that’s the opportunity to accumulate Bitcoin, Ethereum, and other assets. In a way, the Benner cycle gives us a roadmap for long-term entry and exit points.

Of course, this isn’t a perfect system—markets have become more complex, and macroeconomic factors play a bigger role now. But as a supplement to your trading strategy, thinking in terms of Benner cycles can definitely be valuable. Especially if you take the time to understand the psychological patterns behind them. Panic and greed drive markets—that was true 150 years ago, and it’s still true today.

Anyone who thinks long-term about crypto should familiarize themselves with this concept. It could help you avoid the emotional traps that most traders fall into.