#Gate广场五月交易分享 #Polymarket每日热点 The prediction market shows signs of "cooling down"! Two giants team up to swallow $150 billion, is there a bigger chess game behind the scenes?

After seven months of rapid growth, there was a first brake in April. But Polymarket and Kalshi still jointly achieved a staggering trading volume of $150 billion. This is not a tide retreat, but a reshuffle.
If you are still viewing the prediction market with a "betting on elections" perspective, you might have already missed this giant reshaping the boundaries of information and finance. According to the latest data from The Block, the two major prediction market giants, Polymarket and Kalshi, together surpassed $150 billion in total trading volume in April. However, a more subtle signal is: the entire industry’s monthly trading activity, which has exploded since September last year, has for the first time shown a month-on-month decline.

01 The truth behind the data: global cooling, US "civil war" intensifies Last month, the active traders on Polymarket’s global platform dropped from 733k in March to about 643k, with USD trading volume and nominal trading volume declining in tandem. Interestingly, Polymarket’s US subsidiary and Kalshi are still growing their businesses. What does this indicate? The global heat is receding, but the compliance battlefield in the US is accelerating. Kalshi has long established itself within the regulatory framework of the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), even winning a lawsuit over election contracts. Meanwhile, Polymarket, once shut out of the US market, is now launching a major counterattack by acquiring a licensed exchange. A battle for "legitimate prediction markets" has already begun.

02 150 billion is not the end, but the starting point
April’s data may seem like a "cooling," but the figure of $150 billion remains astronomical.
Remember, this is only the trading volume of two platforms. Why can prediction markets attract so much money? Because their essence is not gambling, but using money to vote to gather information.
When AI can generate massive amounts of fake information, and traditional media are divided in stance, the "collective intelligence" formed by betting real money has become the most reliable indicator. This explains why regulatory attitudes are rapidly shifting. In the past, the CFTC obstructed event contracts at every turn. Now, under new leadership, the CFTC has not only issued guidelines to promote innovation but also actively sued state governments attempting to ban prediction markets. From suppression to support, the attitude has done a 180-degree turn.

03 The next battleground: insider trading and billion-dollar valuations
As the scale skyrockets, shadows follow. In April, the shadow of "insider trading" loomed over prediction markets. To address this, Polymarket and Kalshi are actively taking measures to prohibit betting using non-public information. Once a compliant system is established, prediction markets will no longer be "gambling dens," but truly recognized as an informational infrastructure by mainstream finance. Capital has already responded. Kalshi completed a new round of financing in March at a valuation of $22 billion. Polymarket is also rumored to be seeking funding at a valuation of $15 billion, backed by Intercontinental Exchange, the parent company of the New York Stock Exchange. A billion-dollar valuation, once considered a niche toy, is now a ticket to the mainstream stage.

Final sentence
The month-on-month decline in April may just be a pause on the rapid rise. When the two largest prediction markets in the world merge to swallow $150 billion, when US regulators pave the way for them, and when the boundaries between gambling and finance begin to blur — this war over the pricing power of "future information" has only just begun.