‍#Gate广场五月交易分享

The short sellers' sky has fallen, Bitcoin has strongly broken through the 80,000 level!
On May 4, 2026, the Bitcoin market finally experienced an important breakthrough after three months—price broke through the 80,000 USD integer level, rising to a high of 80,594 USD, hitting the highest intraday record since January 31. What exactly happened? Is the bull market returning? Little Money Trader provides an on-the-spot analysis.
Analysis of upward momentum
1. Geopolitical risk mitigation
Recent easing of tensions between the US and Iran has become a key catalyst. Recently, both sides exchanged negotiation proposals frequently, and US officials announced the end of the war (despite suspicions of avoiding the 60-day war authorization period from Congress), bringing new hope for peace to the Middle East, and Bitcoin recovered the declines caused by the war.
2. Capital inflow resurgence
Bitcoin spot ETF has achieved net capital inflows for the fifth consecutive week, with institutional investor confidence clearly restored. Data shows that BlackRock’s IBIT saw a daily capital inflow of $471 million, managing total assets surpassing $54.5 billion, accounting for nearly 60% of the market share, forming strong buying support. Institutions like MicroStrategy continue to increase holdings, and Tesla has included Bitcoin in its treasury reserves, all reinforcing Bitcoin’s attribute as “digital gold.”
3. Shift in macro liquidity expectations
Although Brent crude oil remains high at $107, market expectations for a shift in Federal Reserve monetary policy have increased. Investors bet that falling energy prices might prompt central banks to release liquidity, boosting Bitcoin’s appeal as a hedge against currency devaluation.
4. Technical short covering
During Bitcoin’s consolidation below $78,000, a large number of short positions accumulated. When the price broke through the key resistance at $79,500, programmed buy orders triggered a short squeeze. On-chain data shows that net exchange outflows increased by 17% over the past 24 hours, indicating investors are more inclined to hold coins expecting a rise rather than taking profits.
Market analysis
Although Bitcoin successfully broke through $80,000, the market is not entirely optimistic. From a technical perspective, on the daily chart, Bitcoin previously showed a long upper shadow on a bearish candle, indicating heavy selling pressure above. However, the price remains above the five-day moving average, with all moving averages trending upward, suggesting that the bulls’ momentum has not been exhausted. On the four-hour chart, the Bollinger Bands are opening, and the price is oscillating near the middle band. Although the MACD fast and slow lines are showing a death cross above zero, RSI and Stochastics indicators are showing upward signs, hinting at a short-term upward push.
Looking at the key resistance levels, the next resistance is around 82,000, where a sell wall of 1.4 billion short orders is stacked, which can be seen as the last bastion for the bears. If this level is successfully broken and held, it could signal a complete reversal of the trend, with the next resistance at the 90,000 integer level.
On the support side, the previous top-bottom conversion point at 79,400 is the first support. If this level breaks, a further correction to around 76,000 is likely.
Future outlook—two extreme scenarios may occur
Regarding the future trend, two extreme situations may happen—May’s curse of sharp decline or a trend reversal ending the bear market. Yes, there is no option for sideways movement.
1. Optimistic scenario: If Bitcoin can hold above $80,000 in the first week of May and successfully break through the crucial 82,000 USD level, then from a weekly perspective, the price will stabilize above the weekly Bollinger Band middle line, and the trend will reverse, marking the end of the bear market.
2. Pessimistic scenario: If Bitcoin fails to hold the $80,000 level and even drops below the key support at $79,500, a correction to $70,000 becomes highly probable, indicating that the bear market is not over. Even worse, the “May curse” in the crypto world might strike again. Historical data shows that Bitcoin often faces sharp declines in May during mid-term election years—61%, 65%, and 66% drops in 2014, 2018, and 2022 respectively. If this curse reappears, bulls may face another bloodbath.
Overall, today’s breakthrough of $80,000 is a significant turning point for the market. This breakthrough not only demonstrates Bitcoin’s resilience and potential but also reintroduces the shadow of the “May sell-off” curse. In the coming days, whether Bitcoin can hold above $80,000 will determine if it breaks the historical curse and continues its rally or repeats history with a correction. $BTC $ETH $LAB