#Gate广场五月交易分享 What’s next after Bitcoin reaches 80k? A roadmap of bullish and bearish trends in the crypto market

Analysis of the crypto space on May 4: Bitcoin reclaims the 80k level, leading the market higher. Short positions are being heavily liquidated, and panic sentiment is rising. Currently, the market is short-term bullish, but volatility is intense, and bullish-bearish disagreements are widening, requiring close attention to resistance levels above. Current Bitcoin price: approximately $80,050, 24-hour increase +2.55%, 7-day increase +1.33%. Circulating supply about 20,023,521 BTC, market cap approximately $1.6 trillion.
Key support levels:
Initial support: $79,000, effective support at the bullish trend line on the hourly chart;
Strong support: $78,250–$78,500, with $78,962 as the 50% Fibonacci retracement level;
Structural support: $77,000–$77,650, with $77,650 also being the 50% Fibonacci retracement; losing this opens downside space;
Powerful support: $74,000–$75,000, the 100-day EMA dynamic defense line and a zone of heavy order accumulation.
Long liquidation trigger level: $74,928, once broken, could trigger about $1.01 billion in long liquidations, serving as a key derivative support line below.
Key resistance: $80,250–$80,500, breaking through this opens upward space.
Strong resistance / short liquidation trigger: $82,218, a break here could trigger about $80k in short liquidations.
Extended target: $84,000–$86,000 (with $84,410 as a key resistance level; $86,500 as a supply-dense zone).
Mid-term target: $100,000, but only confirmed if $85,000 is effectively broken through.
Technical deep dive
MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence):
4-hour MACD confirms a bullish crossover, with MACD around 539.6, indicating strong short-term bullish momentum, with a bias toward an uptrend. However, multiple analysis sources warn of potential bearish divergence—price making higher highs while momentum bars fail to expand, signaling early trend weakening.
On the daily chart, MACD histogram shifts from negative to positive, with DIF crossing above DEA, indicating buyers regaining control in the short term.
On the 1-hour chart, MACD accelerates in the bullish zone, aligning with price, with no clear top divergence.
RSI (Relative Strength Index):
4-hour RSI at 71.27, entering the overbought zone (>70), suggesting a short-term technical correction may be needed, possibly pulling back to EMA50 support to digest overbought conditions.
Daily RSI around 66, still in bullish territory but not overheated, leaving room for mid-term upside.
1-hour RSI remains above 50, with relatively strong short-term momentum.
Bollinger Bands:
Daily Bollinger Bandwidth has contracted to the lowest in nearly 30 days, historically indicating an imminent directional move. Some believe the bands are beginning a new expansion phase; if a daily close can stay above $78,470, it could confirm a “macro trend reversal.”
On the 1-hour chart, price is strongly climbing along the upper band, with the middle band providing support, suggesting the bullish trend is not exhausted but may see a pullback.
On the 4-hour chart, price tests the upper band resistance around $79,800.
Moving averages:
4-hour moving averages are in a full bullish alignment (MA7 > MA30 > MA120), confirming the uptrend, with short-term MAs providing layered support.
Specifically, the 4-hour EMA50 is around $77,647, and EMA200 around $74,740.
On the daily, the 50-day EMA is about $74,448, the 100-day EMA about $75,903, and the 200-day EMA at approximately $81,912, which is a strong technical resistance. Breaking this level could further open the bull market.
The 1-hour MAs are diverging upward, with middle MAs providing ongoing support.
KDJ (Stochastic Indicator):
Limited real-time analysis available for BTC’s KDJ today. Earlier data showed a high-level death cross on the 4-hour KDJ (K: 49.1, D: 53.7, J: 39.9), but this signal is now outdated. The current KDJ structure needs further confirmation from real-time charts.
Most mainstream technical analysis now focuses on MACD and RSI signals.
Ethereum’s current price: about $2,376, 24-hour increase +3.71%, 7-day change -0.03%. Circulating supply about 120,687,385 ETH, market cap approximately $287.9 billion.
Key support levels:
Short-term support: $2,344 (100-day EMA), a pivot point for futures bulls and bears.
Defensive zone: $2,250–$2,256 (50-day EMA), previous rebound point with strong psychological and technical significance.
Long liquidation trigger: $2,206–$2,217, a dense zone of long liquidations; losing this could trigger about $673–$747 million in long liquidations.
Mid-term support zone: $2,000–$2,040, a psychological level; breaking below indicates increased downside risk.
Extreme support: $1,800–$1,900; if price drops below $2,050, this becomes the next zone of support.
Key resistance / structural confirmation: $2,385–$2,400; breaking this signals a trend reversal.
Short-term short liquidation trigger: $2,430–$2,433; a break here could trigger about $569–$665 million in short liquidations.
Mid-term targets: $2,575 (50% retracement + 200-day EMA convergence), then $2,700–$2,750; breaking through indicates a market reversal.
Long-term medium-term validation: $2,550–$2,555; sustained above this points toward a next target near $2,946–$3,000.
Technical deep dive
MACD:
On the 4-hour chart, MACD is above zero with a bullish crossover, around 12.54, indicating short-term bullish control, with resistance at $2,400.
However, beware of bearish divergence risk—price making higher highs while MACD histogram declines, signaling weakening momentum and potential correction.
On very short cycles (5–15 minutes), bearish divergence signals have appeared, with DIF below DEA, indicating short-term momentum weakening.
On the daily chart, MACD histogram is still negative but improving, showing decreasing downward pressure and weakening bears.
On the 1-hour chart, MACD in bullish momentum.
RSI:
4-hour RSI has regained upward momentum after correction, currently in a strong zone, supporting healthy price increases with no clear divergence.
Daily RSI, after a prior correction, rebounds; if it approaches 60, watch for potential resistance.
Bollinger Bands:
Daily Bollinger Bands are narrowing, indicating a short-term directional choice.
Price has broken above the middle band; if it remains stable, it may move toward the upper band.
On the 4-hour chart, price is hugging the upper band, with a good opening for continued rebound.
Moving averages:
4-hour MAs remain in bullish alignment, with EMA5, EMA10, EMA30 diverging upward, and price above all MAs, providing support.
Price has confirmed breaking the downward trendline on the 4-hour chart; as long as it stays above about $2,325, the bullish trend may continue.
Key resistance: $2,410, with stronger resistance near the daily EMA144/EMA169 around $2,500.
Support zone: around $2,220–$2,240.
KDJ:
Similar to BTC, limited real-time analysis for ETH’s KDJ today. Previously, the 4-hour KDJ showed a death cross, with all three lines diverging downward, and J in oversold territory, indicating short-term weakness.
But given recent price increases, the KDJ structure likely has changed; latest real-time charts should be checked for confirmation.
Strategy analysis
Bitcoin long entry zone: $79,200–$79,500, stop-loss below $78,750, take profit targets:
Target 1: $80,250–$80,500
Target 2: $81,900–$82,150
Ethereum long entry timing: pullback to $2,360–$2,375, stop-loss at $2,320, take profit at $2,410–$2,430
⚠️ Important: The extreme risk of shorting is that the current bullish alignment of moving averages and RSI in a relatively strong zone could trigger a short squeeze. Breaking above $82,218 could instantly trigger about $80k in short liquidations, with highly volatile counter-movements.
The current price is in the middle zone, with a risk-reward ratio that’s not particularly ideal. It’s best to wait until the price actually reaches or rebounds to the high resistance zones defined by the strategy before participating, rather than acting impulsively at the current level.