#Gate广场五月交易分享 What’s next after Bitcoin reaches 80k? A bullish and bearish roadmap for the crypto market

Analysis of the crypto space on May 4: Bitcoin reclaims the 80k level, leading the market higher. Short positions are being heavily liquidated, and panic sentiment is rising. The current market is short-term bullish, but volatility is intense, and bullish-bearish disagreements are widening, requiring attention to resistance levels above. Current Bitcoin price: approximately $80,050, 24-hour increase +2.55%, 7-day increase +1.33%. Circulating supply: about 20,023,521 BTC, market cap around $1.6 trillion.
Key support levels: Initial support: $79,000, effective support at the hourly bullish trend line: $78,250–$78,500, with $78,962 as the 50% Fibonacci retracement level. Structural support: $77,000–$77,650, with $77,650 also being the 50% Fibonacci retracement; losing this opens downside space. Strong support: $74,000–$75,000, the 100-day EMA dynamic defense line and a dense zone of chips.
Long liquidation trigger level: $74,928, a break below this could trigger about $80k in long liquidations, serving as an important derivative support line below. Key resistance: $80,250–$80,500, a breakout here would open upward space.
Strong resistance / short liquidation trigger level: $82,218, a breakout could trigger about $80k in short liquidations. Extension target: $84,000–$86,000 (with $84,410 as a key resistance level; $86,500 as a supply-dense zone). Mid-term target: $100,000, but only confirmed if $85,000 is effectively broken through.

Technical deep dive
MACD indicator (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): 4-hour confirmed golden cross, MACD value around 539.6, indicating strong short-term bullish momentum, with a bias toward an uptrend. However, multiple analysis sources suggest a bearish divergence risk—price making higher highs while momentum bars fail to expand, a potential early warning of trend weakening, requiring ongoing monitoring. Daily MACD histogram turns positive, with DIF crossing above DEA, indicating buyers regaining control of the short-term direction. The 1-hour MACD accelerates in the bullish zone, resonating positively with the price, with no obvious bearish divergence signs.

RSI indicator (Relative Strength Index): 4-hour RSI at 71.27, entering the traditional overbought zone (>70), implying a short-term technical correction may be needed, with price possibly retracing to EMA50 support to digest overbought pressure. Daily RSI around 66, in a bullish zone but not overheated, leaving room for mid-term upside. 1-hour RSI remains above 50, with short-term momentum relatively strong.

Bollinger Bands: Daily Bollinger Band width has contracted to the lowest level in nearly 30 days, historically indicating an imminent large directional move. Some believe Bollinger Bands are beginning a new expansion phase; if a daily close can stay above $78,470, it would confirm a “macro trend reversal.” The 1-hour price is strongly climbing along the upper band, with the middle band providing support, indicating the bullish trend has not yet exhausted, but the price has broken above the upper band, suggesting a short-term pullback is possible. The 4-hour price is testing the upper band resistance around $79,800.

Moving average system: 4-hour moving averages are in a full bullish alignment (MA7 > MA30 > MA120), confirming the uptrend remains intact, with short-term averages providing layered support. Specifically, the 4-hour EMA50 is around $77,647, and EMA200 is around $74,740. On the daily chart, the 50-day EMA is about $74,448, the 100-day EMA about $75,903, and the 200-day EMA at approximately $81,912, which is the current strongest technical resistance. Breaking through this zone would further open the bull market space. The 1-hour moving averages are diverging upward, with the middle band providing ongoing support.

KDJ indicator (Stochastic): There is limited real-time systematic analysis of BTC’s KDJ today. Earlier data shows that the 4-hour KDJ once showed a dead cross at high levels (K: 49.1, D: 53.7, J: 39.9), but this signal is now outdated. The current KDJ structure needs further judgment based on real-time charts. Most mainstream technical analysis now focuses on MACD and RSI signals.

Ethereum’s current price: about $2,376, 24-hour increase +3.71%, 7-day change -0.03%. Circulating supply: approximately 120,687,385 ETH, market cap around $287.9 billion. Key support levels: Short-term support: $2,344 (100-day EMA), a pivot point for futures bulls and bears. Defensive zone: $2,250–$2,256, the previous rebound point with strong psychological and technical significance. Long liquidation trigger: $2,206–$2,217, a dense area of long liquidations; losing this could trigger about $673–$747 million in long liquidations. Mid-term support zone: $2,000–$2,040, a psychological level; breaking below indicates increased downside risk. Extreme support: $1,800–$1,900; if price falls below $2,050, this becomes the next zone of support. Resistance / structural confirmation: $2,385–$2,400; breaking this signals a trend reversal. Short-term short liquidation trigger: $2,430–$2,433; a breakout could trigger about $569–$666 million in short liquidations. Mid-term targets: $2,575 (50% retracement + 200-day EMA convergence), then $2,700–$2,750; a breakout here indicates a full trend reversal. Long-term validation zone: $2,550–$2,555, with a confirmed move above pointing toward $2,946–$3,000.

Technical deep dive
MACD indicator: 4-hour MACD above zero shows a golden cross, with a value around 12.54, indicating short-term bullish control, with resistance at around $2,400. However, beware of MACD bearish divergence risk—price making higher highs while momentum bars decrease, signaling weakening upward momentum and increased correction risk. Very short cycles (5–15 minutes) also show bearish divergence signals, with DIF below DEA, hinting at short-term momentum weakening. On the daily chart, MACD histogram remains negative but is gradually improving and narrowing, indicating decreasing downward pressure and weakening bears. The 1-hour MACD is strengthening in the bullish zone.

RSI indicator: 4-hour RSI has regained upward momentum after correction, currently in a strong zone, supporting healthy price increases without obvious divergence. Daily RSI, after previous correction, is rebounding; if readings approach 60, watch for potential resistance.

Bollinger Bands: Daily Bollinger Bands are narrowing, indicating a short-term directional choice. The price has already broken above the middle band; sustained stability could lead to an upward move toward the upper band. The 4-hour price is tightly hugging the upper band, with a good opening for continued rebound.

Moving average system: 4-hour moving averages remain in a bullish configuration, with EMA5, EMA10, and EMA30 diverging upward, and the price above all MAs, forming a solid support structure. The price has confirmed a breakout of the 4-hour downtrend line; a pullback not below about $2,325 could see the bullish trend continue. Key resistance is at $2,410, with stronger resistance near the daily EMA144/EMA169 around $2,500. Support zones are concentrated around $2,220–$2,240.

KDJ indicator: Similar to BTC, limited real-time analysis for ETH today. Previously, the 4-hour KDJ showed a dead cross, with the three lines diverging downward, and J in oversold territory, indicating short-term weakness. But given the recent price rise, the KDJ structure likely changed; real-time charts should be checked for confirmation.

Strategy analysis
Bitcoin long entry zone: $79,200–$79,500, stop-loss: below $78,750, take-profit targets: Target 1: $80,250–$80,500, Target 2: $81,900–$82,150.
Ethereum long entry timing: retrace to $2,360–$2,375, stop-loss: $2,320, take-profit: $2,410–$2,430.
⚠️ Important: The extreme risk of shorting is that the current bullish moving average system remains intact, and RSI is in a relatively strong zone. If a short squeeze triggers, breaking $82,218 could instantly trigger about $16k in short liquidations, with highly volatile counter-movements. The current price is in the middle zone, with a risk-reward ratio that’s not particularly ideal. It’s best to wait until the price truly hits or rebounds to the high resistance zone defined by the strategy before participating, rather than acting impulsively at the current level.