5.4 Gold Intraday Market Outlook by Shiyuan

Spot gold traded around $4610 per ounce at midday, slightly rallying to the $4630 level in the morning session before encountering resistance and pulling back. The upward momentum quickly diminished, showing a pattern of rising to a high and then falling back, with resistance at high levels. Under the resonance of news and technical signals, the overall intraday trend is relatively weak. In terms of operations, prioritize a pullback approach and avoid blindly chasing long positions.

The Federal Reserve's dovish expectations continue to ferment, delaying market expectations of rate cuts. The dollar and U.S. Treasury yields remain strong, increasing the cost of holding gold and continuously suppressing the upward space for gold prices. Geopolitical safe-haven sentiment has cooled marginally, with no sudden escalation in Middle Eastern situations. Safe-haven buying is weak, making it difficult to provide effective support for gold prices. The domestic gold market is relatively resilient, but the international market is clearly suppressed by the dollar. Under the divergence of internal and external trends, the international gold short-term remains weak.

Last week’s continuous decline indicates a short-term weak trend, with multiple moving averages forming resistance above, limiting the rebound strength.
On the 4-hour chart, after rising, prices faced resistance and fell back, with short-term moving averages turning downward, forming a bearish arrangement. Resistance above gradually shifts lower, and support focuses on key zones.
On the hourly chart, early rally and pullback formed a small double-top pattern, with volume increasing during the decline. Short-term bearish momentum dominates, and the rebound is only a weak correction.

Upper resistance: $4625–4635, which is the early high and dense trading zone. Touching this area can be used to establish short positions, with a stop-loss above $4645.
Lower support: $4590–4580. After a pullback and stabilization, consider low-level positions with a stop-loss below $4570.
Following the international gold rhythm, watch for resistance at 1018–1022 yuan/gram, and support at 1008–1005 yuan/gram. The range is biased towards the bearish side; after stabilization from a pullback, look for low-level opportunities.

Midday gold faces obvious resistance at high levels, lacking positive news support, with technical signals favoring a bearish trend. The overall intraday operation should be cautious, focusing on opportunities to sell at resistance levels. Be patient and wait for key supports to stabilize before taking positions, avoid aggressive chasing, and strictly control positions and risks.
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