SpaceX IPO Approaching, Funds Moving Around; Details of Iran's New Negotiation Plan Revealed

Headlines

▌SpaceX IPO Approaching Sparks Fund Reallocation, Wall Street May Sell Billions in Tech Stocks to Rebalance and Subscribe

According to The Information, SpaceX is about to launch a large-scale IPO, prompting a flurry of activity among major Wall Street funds. Reports say that about a week ago, a private jet bearing the SpaceX logo carried nearly 200 investors from large Wall Street funds to Texas for a multi-day roadshow presentation hosted by SpaceX executives. Due to overwhelming subscription demand, there were even cases where the plane could not accommodate all interested investors. As this company, built around Musk’s rocket and AI businesses, nears its listing, Wall Street may be discussing which tech stocks to sell to free up funds for SpaceX shares, likely triggering a multi-billion dollar sell-off in tech stocks.

▌Media Discloses Details of Iran’s Latest Negotiation Plan, Including Three Phases

On May 4, according to CCTV International, based on today’s afternoon report from Al Jazeera, Iran’s latest negotiation plan includes three phases. The first phase involves “transforming a ceasefire into a comprehensive truce within 30 days,” “establishing principles for an international mechanism to guarantee that hostilities do not reopen,” “achieving ceasefire across all regions with both sides promising not to break it, including Iran’s regional allies and Israel,” “gradually lifting the blockade on Iranian ports by opening the Strait of Hormuz,” “Iran responsible for clearing mines,” “revising previous Iranian compensation proposals,” and “the U.S. withdrawing from surrounding waters and halting new troop deployments.” The second phase includes “discussions on a maximum 15-year timeline to fully halt uranium enrichment,” and “after the deadline, Iran resumes uranium enrichment based on a zero-stockpile principle.” The plan opposes dismantling or damaging Iran’s nuclear facilities, and for existing high-enriched uranium stockpiles, proposes transferring abroad or diluting uranium enrichment levels. It also involves gradually lifting economic sanctions on Iran. In the third phase, Iran will hold strategic talks with regional countries on building a comprehensive security system. (East News Agency)

Market Conditions

As of press time, according to CoinGecko data:

BTC price: $78,866.13, +0.8% in 24 hours;

ETH price: $2,330.47, +1.1% in 24 hours;

BNB price: $618.96, +0.5% in 24 hours;

SOL price: $84.02, +0.3% in 24 hours;

DOGE price: $0.1114, +3.5% in 24 hours;

XRP price: $1.39, +0.5% in 24 hours;

TRX price: $0.338, +2.2% in 24 hours;

WLFI price: $0.05953, +7.7% in 24 hours;

HYPE price: $41.27, +0.4% in 24 hours.

Policy & Politics

▌Iran’s Foreign Ministry: U.S. Has Responded to Iran’s “14-Point Proposal”

On May 4, local time May 3, Iran’s Foreign Ministry spokesperson Bagheri stated that the U.S. has responded to Iran’s “14-point proposal” through Pakistan, and Iran is currently reviewing it. Bagheri noted that Iran proposes reaching an understanding to fully end the war within 30 days and agree on implementation methods, focusing on ending conflicts on all fronts, including Lebanon. He also said, “Currently, the U.S. and Iran are not engaged in nuclear negotiations.” (East News Agency)

▌Trump: Iran’s “New Proposal” Unacceptable

On May 4, U.S. President Trump said in a phone interview that Iran’s new proposal is unacceptable. Trump stated, “This is unacceptable to me. I’ve studied it, I’ve studied everything — it’s unacceptable.” Additionally, Trump again urged Israeli President Herzog to pardon Prime Minister Netanyahu over corruption allegations. Iran recently submitted a new plan containing 14 points via Pakistan as a mediator, including ensuring no further military invasions, paying reparations, and establishing a new management mechanism for the Strait of Hormuz. On May 2, Trump said he would soon evaluate Iran’s new plan but “cannot imagine” it being “acceptable.” (CCTV)

Blockchain Applications

▌Ethereum Foundation: Key Goals of Glamsterdam Upgrade Mostly Achieved, 200 Million Gas Limit Consensus Reached

On May 4, the Ethereum Foundation summarized the Soldøgn Interop work, stating that the key goals of the Glamsterdam upgrade are mostly completed, including reaching consensus on a 200 million Gas limit after the upgrade, stabilizing the external Builder process for ePBS, and finalizing the EIP-8037 gas re-pricing parameters. The upgrade aims to enhance security by increasing Gas Limit to expand Ethereum’s throughput, while EIP-8037 prevents state bloat caused by high Gas limits through increased costs for state creation. The Foundation also reports that most clients have stabilized on glamsterdam-devnet-2 and successfully tested the external Builder process. Additionally, progress has been made on features related to FOCIL, native account abstraction, and Hegotá upgrades. Core developers will continue to improve client robustness, testing, and code merging in the coming weeks, with final parameters to be confirmed at the AllCoreDevs meeting.

▌Tether CEO: May Promote WDK and QVAC Integration for Agent Cards

On May 3, Tether CEO Paolo Ardoino announced on X that Tether may need to promote integration between WDK and QVAC to support the development of Agent Cards. This move is believed to help improve the connection layer between AI agents and crypto payment infrastructure, providing more efficient support for automation scenarios.

Cryptocurrency

▌Morgan Stanley: Bitcoin Will Eventually Be on US Bank Balance Sheets, Just Not Yet

On May 4, Morgan Stanley’s MSBT product attracted over $100 million in funding six days before launch, even before being opened to financial advisors. Although the firm recommends allocating 2–4% of assets to Bitcoin, adoption among advisors remains slow, indicating a significant knowledge and education gap. Morgan Stanley is working internally to address this. Oldenburg did not rule out the possibility of Morgan Stanley including Bitcoin on its balance sheet in the future but warned that regulatory guidance from the Federal Reserve, Basel rules, and global frameworks will make this process longer than many expect.

▌Poll: Only 1% of U.S. Voters List Cryptocurrency as a Top Issue in Midterms

On May 4, according to a survey commissioned by CoinDesk of 1,000 registered U.S. voters, only 1% cited cryptocurrency as the most important issue in the 2026 midterm elections, ranking at the bottom of all concerns. In contrast, cost of living (36%), employment/economy (13%), and social security/healthcare (11%) are top priorities. The survey also shows that overall, U.S. voters hold a somewhat negative view of crypto, with only 27% having invested, traded, or used cryptocurrencies, and another 27% considering future participation. About 47% believe the Republican Party is more friendly to crypto, while only 14% think Democrats are more supportive; however, in terms of trust in party management of crypto, Democrats lead slightly at 27% versus 25% for Republicans, with 40% trusting neither. Despite crypto not being a core election issue, about 40% of respondents prefer to vote for candidates aligned with their crypto views, indicating the growing influence of digital assets in U.S. politics.

▌Michael Saylor: Strategy Did Not Buy Bitcoin This Week, Will Resume Next Week

On May 3, Michael Saylor announced that Strategy did not purchase Bitcoin this week but will resume buying next week.

▌Morgan Stanley Bitcoin ETF Adds About 286 BTC, Total Holdings Reach 2,620 BTC

On May 3, according to Arkham data, Morgan Stanley’s spot Bitcoin ETF, Morgan Stanley Bitcoin Trust (MSBT), increased holdings by 286.693 BTC via Coinbase on May 2, valued at $22.48 million. Currently, MSBT holds a total of 2,620 BTC, worth approximately $204 million.

▌CryptoQuant: Bitcoin’s April Rise Mainly Driven by “Speculative Factors,” Caution for Pullback

On May 3, CryptoQuant’s research director Julio Moreno wrote in a report: “Perpetual futures demand was the sole driver of Bitcoin’s price increase in April, while spot demand continued to shrink. This structure is often seen in bear markets and is difficult to sustain.” Moreno states that this divergence—rising futures demand and shrinking spot demand—is one of the clearest on-chain signals indicating the rally is more speculative than structurally driven. It suggests that the price increase is mainly leveraged-driven rather than new Bitcoin inflows. Moreno warns that historically, such structures lack the fundamentals to sustain gains, and once futures positions unwind, prices tend to correct via pullbacks. CryptoQuant notes that the current demand structure driven by perpetual futures resembles early 2022 bear market conditions. While not guaranteeing the same outcome, the current setup carries “significant downside risk.”

▌Jack Dorsey’s Cash App Launches Bitcoin Reserve Proof

On May 4, billionaire Jack Dorsey’s crypto financial app Cash App officially launched Bitcoin reserve proof functionality, verifying that all Bitcoin holdings on the platform are fully backed 1:1 for over 60 million users. This move is seen as an important step toward transparency, user trust, and self-custody standards in the crypto industry, and is viewed as a positive signal for the sector’s long-term health.

Major Economic Developments

▌“Federal Reserve Mouthpiece” Nick Timiraos: The Federal Reserve’s Independence Is Usually Called Its Autonomy

On May 3, “Federal Reserve mouthpiece” Nick Timiraos stated that the Fed’s independence, often called its autonomy, stems from its congressional establishment. Congress created a committee of officials with long, staggered terms, protected from removal, and granted full control over its budget and facilities. (East News Agency)

▌Kashkari: If War Continues to Drive Inflation, the Fed “May Need to Raise Rates”

On May 3, Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari said that as war impacts supply chains and pushes inflation higher, the Fed “may need to raise interest rates in some cases.” He noted that the longer the war lasts, the greater the inflationary pressure, and even if the conflict ends immediately, supply chain recovery could still take months. He emphasized that the main challenge is “the high uncertainty about inflation’s path,” requiring policymakers to remain open-minded about future rate paths. He also said he does not see U.S. debt levels as an “immediate crisis,” and looks forward to working with Fed nominee Kevin W. and considering some of his concerns.

▌Probability of Normalized Strait of Hormuz Traffic by End of June Is 52%

On May 4, Polymarket’s forecast shows a 52% chance that traffic through the Strait of Hormuz will return to normal by the end of June. (Jin10)

▌Strait of Hormuz Blocked, Iraq Uses Syria to Export Oil

On May 4, Iraq’s border control said that 70 oil tankers loaded with crude oil entered Syria via the Rabia border crossing on May 2. This marks Iraq’s reactivation of this land oil route after 13 years. The Rabia crossing is in Iraq’s northwest Ninawa province and was closed during the Syrian civil war in 2011, reopening only in April this year. It is located near oil fields in Mosul and Kirkuk in northern Iraq. (East News Agency)

▌Chan Mo-po: Hong Kong Q1 GDP Growth Expected to Be the Strongest in Nearly 5 Years

On May 4, Hong Kong’s Q1 GDP figures are expected to be released on Tuesday (May 5). Financial Secretary Chan Mo-po said in a blog that with private consumption continuing to improve, along with exports and fixed investment performing well, the revised Q1 GDP growth is expected to accelerate further from the 4% growth in Q4 last year, marking the strongest quarterly growth in nearly five years. (East News Agency)

▌U.S. Treasury Secretary Yellen: U.S. Energy Exports at Record Levels

On May 4, U.S. Treasury Secretary Yellen stated that U.S. energy exports have reached record levels; the only factor limiting exports is infrastructure. The U.S. remains a “big winner” in energy markets. (East News Agency)

▌Fed’s Bostic Warns: Private Credit Risks Could Spill Over to Financial System via “Psychological Contagion”

On May 4, Fed Governor Bostic warned that stress in private credit could trigger “psychological contagion,” leading to broader credit tightening. He reiterated that, amid rising risks, oversight of Wall Street should not be relaxed. Bostic said that while the direct link between banks and private credit currently does not seem “particularly concerning,” overlaps between the insurance industry and private lenders warrant attention. “There’s still a psychological contagion issue,” he said, “people seeing private credit might not say ‘this is a special problem, these are high-risk loans, other parts of the corporate sector are different,’ but rather say, ‘Wow, our corporate sector seems to be cracking. Maybe the corporate bond market is cracking too.’” He added that this could lead to credit contraction and greater financial stress. (East News Agency)

▌U.S. Officials Clarify: Trump’s “Rescue” of Stranded Ships in Hormuz Does Not Involve Naval Escorts

On May 4, the Wall Street Journal reported that former President Trump announced the U.S. will begin guiding merchant ships out of the Strait of Hormuz. He also said negotiations with Tehran are ongoing to find a way to end the conflict. A senior U.S. official said that the new initiative, dubbed the “Freedom Plan” by Trump, aims to coordinate passage of ships through the Strait among countries, insurers, and shipping organizations. The official stated that the plan does not currently involve U.S. Navy ships escorting vessels through the strait. (Jin10)

▌Probability of Fed Holding Rates Steady in June Is 92.8%

On May 4, according to CME’s “FedWatch,” the probability that the Fed will keep rates unchanged in June is 92.8%, with a 7.2% chance of a 25 basis point cut. The probability of no change in July is 88.8%, with a 10.9% chance of a 25 basis point cut and 0.3% for a 50 basis point cut. For September, the chance of holding steady is 83.0%, with a 16.0% chance of a 25 basis point cut and 1.0% for a 50 basis point cut. (Jin10)

Gold & Finance

▌Can Bitcoin Still Be Called “Digital Gold” Amid Geopolitical Crises?

During every geopolitical crisis, gold prices rise while Bitcoin prices plummet. After six tests, the label “digital gold” has never been substantiated by data. Countries hoard gold but exclude Bitcoin from reserves. For investors, Bitcoin has asymmetries: it tends to fall with stocks but not rise with them. Three structural asymmetries prevent Bitcoin from gaining safe-haven status: excess derivatives (market structure), dominance of leveraged traders (participant composition), and lack of repeated behavioral records (behavioral accumulation).

Bitcoin is not a safe-haven asset, but it is a “crisis-useful asset.” In border closures and bank failures, it can indeed serve a role. If these three asymmetries diminish, Bitcoin might no longer be a copy of gold but could become a new “next-generation gold.” Intergenerational shifts and widespread algorithm adoption could accelerate this process.