#Gate广场五月交易分享 Bitcoin surged 12.7% in April, but there's a signal worth paying close attention to

Just past April, Bitcoin rose 12.7%, marking its best monthly performance since April 2025. Ethereum increased by 8%, also rising for two consecutive months, reaching its strongest monthly gain since August last year. If you only look at price charts, this is definitely a month to celebrate. But we need to stay calm, because there’s one data point that’s more concerning than the price increase itself.

01 Large gains, but weak buying demand
Cryptocurrency data research firm CryptoQuant recently released a report with a core point: Bitcoin’s April rally was entirely driven by futures demand, while spot demand continued to shrink throughout the rally. So, this market movement was pushed up by leverage, not genuine buying support. Specifically, CryptoQuant tracks the real demand indicator of Bitcoin’s 30-day spot net inflow change, which remained negative throughout April. The "real demand" from users actually buying Bitcoin not only didn’t increase but decreased. Meanwhile, trading demand for futures and perpetual contracts surged significantly.
CryptoQuant’s head of research, Julio Moreno, put it plainly: "The divergence between rising futures demand and shrinking spot demand indicates that this price increase is driven by leverage, not by market accumulation."

02 Historical pattern: such markets often have poor outcomes
Moreno also pointed out a key historical pattern: from a historical perspective, such markets lack the structural fundamentals to sustain the rally. Once futures positions are heavily liquidated, prices tend to pull back. This is not alarmist talk.
In the 2022 bear market, similar conditions appeared—futures demand surged while spot demand declined, ultimately leading to a prolonged price decline. The current demand pattern resembles that of the start of the 2022 bear market. Back then, the market looked prosperous, prices seemed fine, but the number of genuine buyers was decreasing while speculators increased. The result? Bitcoin fell from $69,000 all the way down to $17,000.

03 Market structure is changing
The report also reveals a deeper issue: the crypto market environment is undergoing a structural shift. Perpetual contracts have become the core arena for trading activity, liquidity, and price discovery. Meanwhile, the spot trading that early exchanges relied on for survival is now playing a diminishing role in industry growth and revenue.
Simply put, today’s crypto market is increasingly resembling a "derivatives market" rather than a "spot market." The price discovery mechanism may have fundamentally changed, and traditional technical and fundamental analysis might no longer be as applicable.

04 Bitcoin bull-bear strength index has fallen from 50 to 40
CryptoQuant’s bull-bear strength index has dropped from 50 in April to 40, indicating that market sentiment is "turning more bearish." Coupled with the previous analysis, the logic is clear: technically, the market looks strong (two months of gains), but fundamentally, it’s weak (real buying demand shrinks). Behind this "false prosperity," there are often larger risks brewing.

05 What’s next in May? It depends on this level
According to analyst forecasts, Bitcoin may face a critical test in May: the 200-day moving average. Currently, the 200-day MA is around $79,400, an important technical threshold. If Bitcoin can break through this level effectively, it could signal the start of a new upward trend; if it gets rejected again, caution is warranted for a potential pullback.
The target price range forecasted by analysts from May 11 to May 20 is between $78,000 and $84,000, depending on whether it can break through the $79,400 key level.

06 How should we act?
In this environment of "rising but lacking conviction," here are some suggestions:
First, don’t be fooled by short-term gains. A rise doesn’t mean fundamentals are improving; learn to see through the true situation behind the data.
Second, pay attention to the relationship between spot and futures demand. If they continue to diverge, be alert.
Third, control leverage and position sizes. In such a market, excessive leverage could force you to liquidate during a pullback.
Fourth, practice good risk management. No matter how optimistic you are about the future, set stop-loss levels to protect your capital.
The crypto market is never short of stories of quick riches, but more often it’s about liquidation tragedies. Surviving in this market is more important than making quick money.

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute any investment advice. Cryptocurrency markets are highly volatile and risky; please make rational decisions and implement personal risk controls.