Market Analysis (2026.05.04)

I. Macroeconomic Overview
1. U.S. core PCE inflation remains high, and the Federal Reserve's rate cut expectations for June fluctuate repeatedly, becoming the key indicator this month,
2. Steady net inflows into Bitcoin spot ETFs, institutional holdings continue to increase, and bottom-position chips remain solid,
3. The ongoing turmoil in Middle Eastern geopolitics leads to continuous inflows of safe-haven funds into the crypto market, providing support for the market’s space.
4. The global crypto compliance system is gradually improving, which is a long-term positive for the valuation of crypto assets.
II. Bitcoin BTC
Support levels: 77,380 / 75,600
Resistance levels: 80,000 / 83,000
The daily chart remains predominantly bullish with oscillations, trading volume gradually diminishes, and bulls and bears enter a short-term tug-of-war phase. Focus in the short term is on breaking through the 80,000 integer mark; if it stabilizes above, a new upward wave will begin: if support at 75,600 fails, it will enter a deep correction zone. Long-term holders are heavily locked in, with limited selling pressure, and the overall trend remains upward.
III. Ethereum ETH
Support levels: 2,250 / 2,200
Resistance levels: 2,350 / 2,400
The trend is clearly stronger than Bitcoin, with daily oscillations trending upward and bearish momentum continuously weakening. Coupled with expectations of network upgrades in June and explosive growth in Layer 2 ecosystems, ETH has ample room for a rebound. Currently, funds are gradually rotating from BTC to ETH, making the future market worth watching closely.
IV. Trading Strategy
The overall macro market is relatively warm, with the main trend being oscillations.
In the short term, it’s suitable to buy on dips and avoid chasing high prices; strictly set stop-losses.
Hold patiently in the medium term, wait for the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy to be implemented, and seize the main upward trend this month.