5.4 Morning Gold Outlook

The Federal Reserve overall maintains a hawkish stance, and the high interest rate policy continues to be implemented. Coupled with multiple officials making dense hawkish remarks, market expectations for rate cuts this year keep cooling further, tightening bullish expectations.

U.S. Treasury yields remain elevated, continuously raising the cost of holding gold. Large amounts of capital flow into the bond market, which keeps exerting pressure on gold prices. At present, gold’s long-side momentum is gradually weakening; the chart lacks substantial bullish support. Any rebound is feeble—every time prices rally upward, they encounter pressure and then fall back. Overall, upward momentum is severely insufficient.

Before the release of the Non-Farm Payrolls data, gold prices have been unable to effectively hold above the key level of 4640, and the overall weak, range-bound pattern remains unchanged.

This week’s morning focus first should be on the effectiveness of key support around 4610, with 4640 acting as the bull-bear dividing line for this round. If price cannot break through and hold that level, the weak downward rhythm will keep continuing.

Trading Suggestions
Consider going long on a rebound to around 4630—4650,
Target around 4590—4540.
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