May 4th $BTC Weekly Market Analysis

This week's news:
① May 5-7 Consensus 2026: One of the largest crypto conferences in 2026, focusing on DeFi, institutional adoption, regulation, and Web3. This is a key window for restarting institutional narratives; historically, similar conferences often lead to a short-term increase in risk appetite.

② May 5 U.S. JOLTS Job Openings Data: Labor market data that directly influences Federal Reserve rate cut expectations.

③ @MicroStrategy plans to release Q1 2026 earnings and hold an online briefing on May 5.

④ @Coinbase will release Q1 earnings and hold an online briefing on May 7.

⑤ May 8, the U.S. 🇺🇸 will publish April non-farm payroll data.

⑥ The first batch of prediction market ETFs may be launched in 🇺🇸 this week.

Last week's capital flow:
Bitcoin spot ETF: April saw the strongest monthly net inflow in 2026 ($1.97B–$2.44B), with total inflows exceeding $58B and AUM reaching $102B. Continuous inflows appeared early May (about $630 million on May 1, five consecutive days of inflow).

Perpetual contract funding rate: Over the weekend/recently averaged around -0.002% to +0.004% (neutral to slightly low), far from overheating levels (historical highs above 0.01%). April experienced extreme negative values, confirming a bottom; current leverage sentiment is rational, with no obvious long squeeze risk.

On-chain capital flow: Exchange reserves continue to decline, long-term holders (LTH) are accumulating significantly, and supply shocks are still unfolding; metrics like MVRV indicate current valuation has moved away from the overheated zone of 2025 highs but is not extremely undervalued.

Technical analysis:
Weekly chart: Approaching resistance at EMA30; the higher this position, the greater the pressure. It may take some time to decide direction after a period of consolidation.

Daily chart: As expected yesterday, if price does not break above 79,200, short-term risks should be noted. Today’s close remains below 79,200, with no sustained bullish candle, so on a daily level, watch for MACD crossing below zero.

4H chart: A triple top has formed; combined with the daily chart, watch for a pullback risk.

1H chart: Persistent bearish divergence; be cautious of a pullback.

Support levels: 77,500 – 75,800 – 73,700
Resistance levels: 79,200 – 80,500
Summary: After this week’s close, the price is expected to dip before rebounding (short-term turning point between Tuesday night and Wednesday).