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The market expects only about a one-in-three chance of a 25 basis point rate cut this year; investors may face greater challenges next month.
ME News, April 15 (UTC+8). After data showed that gasoline prices rose due to the Iran war and that U.S. March inflation accelerated, bond traders slightly reduced their bets on the Federal Reserve cutting rates once this year. On Friday, pricing in the interest rate swap market indicated that the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting rates by 25 basis points this year was about one-third, with little change compared to before the data release. After the report was published, U.S. Treasuries edged lower, and yields across all maturities rose by two to three basis points. Tom di Galoma, Managing Director of Mischler Financial Group, said, “Today’s CPI data will not support bond prices, because next month’s inflation report will bring more trouble to investors and the Federal Reserve.” (Source: Jin10)