#Polymarket每日热点 Polymarket: Bitcoin May Price Forecast

Bitcoin forecast data actually "conflicts": 82% bullish at $80k, 69% bearish at $75k, what exactly is the market plotting?
Liquidity less than one million, trading is bleak, is the prediction market "collective wisdom" or "data illusion"?
Recently, many readers have been sharing a screenshot of a prediction market. It shows:
Probability of rising to $80k: 82.0%, probability of falling to $75k: 69.0%, probability of rising to $85k: 38.5%
Someone asked: "These three numbers add up to over 180%, and both bullish and bearish are so high at the same time, is there a data bug?
Does the market still believe what Arthur Hayes said about reaching $125k by the end of the year?"
Don't worry, today we’ll peel back the layers of this data and see what it’s really saying.
1. The sum of three probabilities not equal to 100%, not a bug
First, clarify a common fact: these three probabilities come from three completely independent prediction markets, not different options on the same question.
"Rising to $80k" is an independent trading pool, "falling to $75k" is another independent pool, "rising to $85k" is yet another independent pool, each answering a simple "yes/no" question, so their probabilities don’t need to sum to 100%.
So, what’s the problem?
The problem is: the coexistence of an 82% bullish probability and a 69% bearish probability is logically conflicting.
2. "Contradictions" under low liquidity, signal or noise?
Let’s look at the real volume behind this data:
Total liquidity pool: only $840k
24-hour trading volume: only $242k, while Bitcoin’s daily spot market volume is $50 billion.
The liquidity of this prediction market is less than 0.002% of the spot market.
In such a "mini pool," slippage for automated market makers is severe. A few tens of thousands of dollars in buy orders can instantly push the "rising to $80k" probability from 75% to 90%.
Similarly, a few tens of thousands of dollars in sell orders can easily push it back down to 60%.
Therefore, these conflicting probability data are very likely a statistical illusion caused by "small traders betting both ways + liquidity exhaustion + slippage distortion," rather than a reflection of true market consensus.
Conclusion: In prediction markets with shallow liquidity, price ≠ true probability.
3. What is the market really doubting about Arthur Hayes?
Briefly review Hayes’ core logic (from his 2026 Bitcoin conference speech):
The US bank eSLR new regulation (effective April) releases about $1.3 trillion in credit space, with liquidity indicators bottoming out along with Bitcoin → target of $125k by year-end.
If the market fully believes this narrative, the correct pricing should be:
Short-term bullish probability (at $80k/$85k) significantly rising, bearish probability (at $75,000) dropping sharply, but in reality:
Both bullish and bearish probabilities remain high simultaneously.
This indicates that the market holds a strongly cautious and reserved attitude toward Hayes’ three core assumptions.
4. Another signal worth noting: the full-year prediction market also shows strong consensus, with the probability of Bitcoin surpassing $80k by the end of 2026 reaching 81%.
This aligns more closely with Hayes’ medium- to long-term narrative. The key difference is:
The probability of reaching $85k within May is only 38.5%, but the probability of breaking $80,000 by year-end is 81%.
The market does not deny the "full-year direction," but strongly doubts the "short-term explosive path."
Very few are willing to directly bet on $85,000 within May.
In other words: liquidity narratives are accepted, but the huge uncertainty in pace and volatility makes most people choose to "wait and see."
5. Conclusion: this is not Hayes’ validation, but the market’s "hedged cautiousness."