May 4 Early Morning Analysis

Stagnant water forms a deep pool, and a dragon is born from it; without accumulating small streams, there can be no great rivers or seas.

Big drops in the market are always brewed gradually from small declines. If there are no signs of minor corrections, where does the sudden crash come from? Even in the face of black swan events, the market will show early warning signs. Just like last October 11, before BTC plunged sharply, the 4-hour cycle already showed divergence at the top, indicator death crosses, double lines opening downward, and downward momentum continuously strengthening. The MACD was even close to breaking below the zero line, with bearish signals fully in place.

Looking at the current BTC chart, the 4-hour trend remains unusually strong, with fast and slow lines continuously opening upward, and the rebound momentum shows no signs of weakening; the 1-hour cycle even formed a golden cross, boosting the market’s acceleration upward. In such a strong bullish pattern, going against the trend and shorting is nothing but inviting trouble.

Of course, trying to short the top is not impossible, but it’s essential to wait until the price hits potential new highs before gradually opening short positions. Once the market pulls back to a key support level, decisively take partial profits—short one lot, and do not attempt to swallow the entire thousand-point decline in one go.

From any perspective, the current market does not show any possibility of a crash. This is my personal opinion; there’s no need to argue. #BTC #ETH #BTC走势分析