The escalation of US-Iran tensions will initially trigger risk aversion selling pressure in the crypto market, with BTC/ETH rapidly plunging and high-leverage contracts experiencing concentrated liquidations. If the conflict drives up oil prices and sparks inflation concerns, it will also reinforce expectations of high interest rates from the Federal Reserve, suppressing liquidity in the crypto space. However, in extreme cases, the narrative of BTC as digital gold may temporarily reemerge, providing short-term support.

Non-farm payroll data is unlikely to break the stalemate in gold prices, only amplifying short-term volatility in the crypto market, and will not change the current sideways pattern: if the data exceeds expectations and leans hawkish, crypto prices will come under pressure; if below expectations, there will be a brief rebound but lacking sustained momentum.