Recently, I’ve been pondering a question: why do some people get rich by doing the right thing at the right time, while others remain stuck despite their efforts? Economist Zhou Jintao once said something that I think hits many people’s pain points—wealth depends on the Kondratiev wave.

His point is that a person might encounter about 2-3 major wealth opportunities in their lifetime. Grasping one leads to modest prosperity, two can make you wealthy, and catching all of them can lead to financial freedom. It sounds a bit fatalistic, but upon closer reflection, there’s actually economic logic behind it.

What is a Kondratiev wave? Simply put, capitalism’s economy has a long cycle of about 50-60 years, which is the Kondratiev cycle. A complete Kondratiev wave shows four stages: prosperity (new technology erupts, productivity soars), recession (growth peaks, bubbles start), depression (bubbles burst, industry reshuffles), and recovery (new technology emerges, preparing for the next round).

Looking at the Kondratiev chart, I realize why the steam engine era, the electric power era, and the internet era have successively become wealth generators. Each time, it’s driven by disruptive innovation that sparks leaps in productivity.

So where are we now? Honestly, we’re in a somewhat awkward position. The fifth Kondratiev wave began in the 1990s, centered on information technology and the internet. But now—well—the internet dividend has been squeezed dry, smartphones aren’t selling well anymore, global debt is piling up, and geopolitical tensions are ongoing. Typical symptoms of the cycle’s end: old engines stall, new engines haven’t fully kicked in.

But this is also the most interesting part. By 2026, we’re at a critical point of cycle transition, with the seed of the sixth Kondratiev wave just sprouting. This is the boundary between the greatest risk and the greatest opportunity.

What might the next wave on the Kondratiev chart look like? Most people speculate in several directions: AI isn’t just chatbots anymore but foundational infrastructure for productivity, restructuring entire production logic; biotech and precision medicine shifting from post-illness treatment to pre-illness prevention, enhancing human innate productivity; energy revolution—once nuclear fusion or efficient energy storage mature, industrial logic will be forced to rewrite itself; and Web3 and decentralized finance—when traditional fiat systems become overwhelmed, assets like Bitcoin could shift from alternative investments to core assets.

But here’s a practical issue—not everyone can wait 50 years for the next Kondratiev wave. So what to do? Economists have found that within these long cycles, there are smaller cycles. The Kitchin cycle lasts about 3-5 years, driven mainly by inventory fluctuations; the Juglar cycle lasts about 8-11 years, driven by capital investment and depreciation relationships. Looking at these smaller waves on the Kondratiev chart, you’ll find that even if you miss the big opportunity, there are still chances to profit within the smaller cycles.

Honestly, no matter how perfect economic theories are, they come with many assumptions and limitations—no single indicator can be trusted alone. But learning more definitely gives an advantage in trend judgment. Mark Twain once said that history doesn’t repeat itself, but it often rhymes. Human nature hasn’t changed, so cycles have value.

For small retail investors like me, choosing the right moment is important, but the most crucial thing is to take action. No matter how accurate your judgment, without action it’s useless. I hope everyone can seize their own opportunities at this special time and make good money happily.