#Gate广场五月交易分享

1. Current Market Overview

ETH contract current price 2,312.21 USDT, up 0.38% in 24 hours, intraday fluctuation range 2,295.82 — 2,342.08.

Funding rate −0.000043, long positions can earn funding fees, short positions have no advantage in cost.

Fear and Greed Index 47, market sentiment is neutral leaning towards fear.

30-day increase 12.01%, short-term profit-taking has accumulated;

7-day increase only 0.41%, upward momentum has significantly slowed.

ETH's nearly 24-hour gain slightly exceeds BTC (+0.11% excess return), but overall momentum is weaker than before.

Recent news worth noting:

ETH spot ETF net outflow this week is $82.5 million, BlackRock sold $27 million worth of ETH in a single week, indicating short-term institutional withdrawal.

BitMine (owned by Tom Lee) continues to heavily accumulate ETH, holding over 5 million coins (accounting for 4.21% of total supply), with a mix of large holders buying and institutional outflows, signaling mixed signals.

2. Technical Signal Analysis

Signals supporting shorting

The 4-hour MACD top divergence is the core basis for this short position. Currently, the 4-hour candlestick high has risen to 2,322.54, but the MACD histogram has decreased from 3.518 to 3.364, with price making a new high but momentum decreasing, indicating weakening upward strength and increased risk of a pullback.

The daily MACD bottom divergence is also noteworthy — daily price hit a new low of 2,297.77, but the MACD histogram rose from −12.31 to −10.37, showing that bearish momentum is weakening but still in negative territory, implying the daily bearish inertia has not fully reversed.

The Bollinger Bands have narrowed to the lowest level in nearly 30 days (160.23, with the maximum 30-day bandwidth at 501.07), a very clear reversal signal — after narrowing, a directional breakout is highly likely, and a downward break would directly favor short positions.

Signals to watch out for that are unfavorable for shorting

Almost all 15-minute signals are bullish: MA7 (2,313.88) > MA30 (2,308.07) > MA120 (2,308.02), indicating a bullish moving average alignment; PDI (32.62) is much greater than MDI (13.48), and ADX reaches 31, showing a clear and relatively strong upward trend; SAR dots are below the candlesticks, maintaining bullish momentum.

The daily RSI is 53.77, in the neutral zone, neither overbought nor oversold, with no extreme signals triggered.

Volume-wise, there has been a volume increase over 24 hours, indicating ongoing participation and interest.

ETH has slightly outperformed BTC by 0.11%, showing relative strength in the short term.

3. Short Position Trading Plan

Market price short entry

The 4-hour top divergence has formed, and Bollinger Bands are at their tightest, so go for a market order to capture momentum exhaustion and potential trend reversal.

Entry price around 2,312. Direction: short (open short position). Leverage recommendation: 20x — 30x; more aggressive traders may opt for lower leverage to compensate for risk.

Position size controlled at 3% — 5% of total capital; smaller positions should be tested strictly.

Margin mode must be isolated margin, to isolate risk.

4. Take Profit and Stop Loss Settings

Stop loss (must be strictly enforced)

Set stop loss at 2,340 — 2,360; break above recent highs triggers stop loss. The stop loss range is about 1% — 2.5%, which at 5x leverage corresponds to a margin loss of 5% — 12.5%. Close all positions unconditionally at the stop loss price, with no hesitation.

Take profit

First target 2,290 — near the intraday low, also a recent short-term support tested multiple times.
Second target 2,270 — near the 4-hour MA30 (2,308 or below for deeper support), where price revisits increase the battle between bulls and bears.
Third target 2,240 — near the Bollinger lower band, only reached in extreme market conditions.

Recommend partial profit-taking: close 40% of the position at the first target, close the remaining 60% at the second target, lock in profits, and avoid greed for the third target.

Risk warning: The above is a personal trading plan, not investment advice. The market carries risks; please evaluate and bear the risks yourself.