#Gate广场五月交易分享 What recent news events have impacted the trends of gold and crude oil?

#Gate广场五月交易分享 What recent news events have impacted the trends of gold and crude oil?
The gold market is ending this week’s trading with a weak stance. The ongoing global energy crisis triggered by the Iran war continues to push up inflation concerns and forces central banks around the world to shift from their previous easing bias to a more cautious "wait-and-see" mode.
Although major central banks are not yet ready to raise interest rates immediately, the hawkish tilt in policy tone has been enough to dampen gold sentiment.
Spot gold closed on Friday, May 1st, at $4,614.713 per ounce, down slightly by 0.16% intraday, but down $96.48 or 2.05% from last Friday.
Gold may continue to face pressure next week, as there are no signs that the Iran conflict will end soon.
Although a ceasefire is still in effect, the Strait of Hormuz remains closed to shipping.
Despite the market being in a long-term state of uncertainty and investors beginning to show fatigue, gold may still be at a disadvantage amid oil prices remaining in triple digits.
Next week, U.S. labor market data will be an important focus, but analysts believe that as long as the energy crisis persists, economic data may still have less impact on the market compared to oil prices and inflation expectations.
Until the Strait of Hormuz reopens and oil supplies recover, investors will continue to focus mainly on inflation.
It is difficult for central banks to take clear action before determining whether inflation is temporary or persistent, which also means gold may continue to fluctuate sideways.

This week, the Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged as expected.
However, Fed Chair Powell stated that the committee had extensive discussions about whether to remove the current easing bias.
Powell added that the Fed does not expect to raise rates in the short term, but the market also does not see a high likelihood of rate cuts this year.
Against the backdrop of high oil prices and renewed inflation pressures, gold faces challenges: while safe-haven demand still exists, expectations for real interest rates and central bank policy uncertainties are limiting the upside potential of gold prices.
Although gold may continue to be under pressure in the short term, a price pullback can be viewed as a buying opportunity.
The market is currently highly focused on the impact of Middle East tensions on energy prices, but there remains a path for one or two rate cuts before the end of the year.
Possible triggers include Wosh convincing other Fed officials that AI-driven productivity gains will boost growth, a further weakening of the labor market with inflation proven to be only temporary, or the Fed needing lower federal funds rates if balance sheet reduction and shortening of asset duration are pursued.
With emerging market central banks continuing to increase gold holdings and multiple medium- to long-term positive factors still in play, the current pullback may be a good entry point.

Next week, the market will focus on a series of U.S. economic data, including Tuesday’s release of the ISM Services PMI, JOLTS job openings, and new home sales; Wednesday’s ADP employment report; Thursday’s initial unemployment claims; and Friday’s non-farm payroll report and University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index.
However, in the current environment, unless the data significantly change market views on economic growth and inflation, the energy crisis and the situation in the Strait of Hormuz will remain the core variables driving gold trends.
Until the Middle East crisis is resolved, it will be difficult for the market to refocus on ordinary economic data and stagflation risks.
He also noted that the stock market is performing strongly at present, attracting investors to chase risk assets, which also weakens gold’s short-term appeal.