#Gate广场五月交易分享 Powell refuses to retire — the first time since 1948

More interesting than the FOMC itself is what Jerome Powell said at his last press conference as Chair:
“After my term ends on May 15th, I will continue to serve as a director for a period of time. I plan to stay low profile.”
What does this mean?
Powell’s 14-year term as a director won’t end until January 2028. He chose to remain as a director after stepping down as Chair, which is the first time since 1948 that a Federal Reserve Chair has done so.
Historically, almost all Fed Chairs resign from the board after stepping down. Powell has broken this 78-year tradition.
Why?
The answer lies in the DOJ investigation. The U.S. Department of Justice previously launched a criminal investigation into the Federal Reserve headquarters renovation project — it was Powell himself who proactively submitted this matter to the Fed Inspector General. On April 24th, the criminal investigation was just closed. Powell explicitly stated: I will not leave the Board until the investigation is fully and thoroughly concluded.
This is a stance. He is safeguarding the independence of the Federal Reserve.
Meanwhile, Kevin Warsh was confirmed by the Senate Banking Committee on April 29th with a vote of 13-11, and is expected to receive full Senate confirmation during the week of May 11th, officially becoming the next Fed Chair.
This means that starting from mid-May, the Fed will present a rare pattern: new Chair Warsh making decisions, while old Chair Powell remains on the table as an ordinary director.
Will the new chair curse repeat?
Crypto analyst CRYPTOWZRD reminded us of a historical pattern: every time a new Fed Chair takes office, Bitcoin usually retraces for several months.
What happened when Powell was reappointed in 2022?
In May 2022, the Fed began a rate hike cycle, and BTC fell from about 40k to 16k by the end of the year.
What about when Powell first took office in 2018? BTC dropped from 17k to around 3k.
Of course, history doesn’t repeat exactly. The context when Warsh takes over is different — interest rates are already high at 3.5%-3.75%, and the market generally expects rate cuts to begin in the second half of the year. But the pace and timing remain uncertain.
Warsh was confirmed by the Senate Banking Committee with a 13-11 vote, which itself indicates controversy over his policy stance. The market will closely watch his first statement after taking office — whether he continues Powell’s cautious approach or signals a more dovish or hawkish stance.
Willy Woo’s recent analysis of BTC’s trend suggests that a rebound can only be confirmed if it closes above 79k (the average cost basis of recent investors). The probability he assigns to this is only 30%.