ETH Analysis: Short-term bullish but medium-term pressure, trend reversal imminent

15-minute bullish arrangement (MA7>MA30>MA120) + increased volume rally + outperforming BTC → Short-term rebound momentum
4-hour SAR short stop-loss line ($2,309 above the candle) + 15-minute MACD bearish divergence + broken below MA20 → Medium-term correction pressure remains
Bollinger Bands 30-day minimum bandwidth → Probable directional breakout within the next 1-3 days
Core resistance: $2,318 (MA20) → $2,343 (24-hour high) → $2,405–$2,420 (futures gap + strong supply zone)
Core support: $2,295 (24-hour low) → $2,260–$2,270 (Bollinger lower band + demand zone) → $2,200 (200EMA + psychological level)
Trading suggestion: Recommend observing and waiting for trend confirmation (Plan C), as the combination of Bollinger band narrowing + 4-hour SAR bearish + bearish divergence makes the direction uncertain.
Aggressive traders can take a small long position at $2,295–$2,305 with strict stop-loss, quick in and out. The shift of 4-hour SAR from bearish to bullish is a key signal for medium-term trend reversal.
Key risks: BitMine holding 5,078,386 ETH with a floating loss of 35%, strong resistance at $2,405 due to futures gap, and large volatility risk after Bollinger band narrowing.