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Bitcoin dominance approaches the death cross: Ethereum may start the altcoin season
Ethereum ETH USD is currently stuck below $2,300, while Bitcoin dominance approaches the monthly death cross, a pattern seen only twice in history. This double pattern has historically indicated the start of the altcoin season.
The charts mirror each other. Since Ethereum is the largest altcoin, its continued strength against Bitcoin leads to a capital shift from BTC to altcoins, lowering the dominance index. This is the classic setup – or traditional pattern – we've seen at the beginning of past altcoin rallies.
Ethereum targets $3,430! Why is it important?
Ethereum is currently trading at $2,280, and prices have been moving within a parallel upward channel since February. On April 27, the token dipped below the midline of the channel, allowing bulls to take short-term control.
With this breakout, the daily Relative Strength Index (RSI) also fell below its upward trendline. Losing trendlines is usually considered a bearish signal, hinting at deeper corrections.
However, trading volume decreased instead of increasing during this breakout. The Visible Range Volume Profile (VRVP) on the right side of the chart shows significant accumulation around $2,050. This area, which coincides with the lower boundary of the channel, stands out as a key target for downside if selling intensifies.
If closes remain above the midline of the channel, new upward potentials open, possibly pushing the price to $3,430 with a record move of 50%. In the short term, the first strong resistance above is at $2,750, the previous peak that bulls need to surpass.
Trader analysis also points to $3,430!
Ethereum reached the $3,430 zone from a completely different technical perspective on its daily chart. The analyst shows a downward trendline, and the price has already broken through one of them. They say this pattern resembles a similar fractal pattern seen in early 2025.
This pattern also led to a quick upward move after a period of sideways movement below resistance.
The target area drawn matches exactly with the long-term resistance on the channel chart. Two independent technical analyses agree that the price could reach the $3,430 target. This suggests that if the current downtrend isn’t permanent, Ethereum bulls have a clear upside target.
The third Bitcoin dominance death cross in history is approaching!
The Bitcoin dominance chart indicates a formation of a historic death cross. The slow moving average (yellow line) may fall below the fast moving average (white line) in June 2026.
This signal has only appeared twice in the asset’s history: first in July 2016 and again in January 2021. Both events triggered rapid declines in dominance and intense altcoin rotation.
BTC.D is currently at 60.59% of its monthly close. While dominance remains near multi-year highs, the technical structure on the chart suggests downward pressure could develop in the coming months.
Bitcoin dominance threshold at 61%: the altcoin season will determine its fate!
The weekly chart reveals details not visible on the monthly view. After moving within an upward channel for years, Bitcoin dominance broke in August 2025, and the price remained relatively stable within an accumulation zone from August 2025 until April 2026.
In the last two weeks, BTC D broke out of this range and is currently at 60.75%, just below the critical resistance at 61%. This level stands out as a crucial point for determining the overall macro trend.
If a clear breakout above 61% occurs, there could be an opportunity to reach 62% and the peak of 66% seen in June. Conversely, rejection from this area would lead to a scenario of the monthly death cross, indicating a price decline to 49.23%, which aligns with the Fibonacci 0.618 correction level.
Breaking below $3,430 in Ethereum and a drop in Bitcoin dominance to 49% are two sides of the same altcoin trading pattern. In the coming weeks, the dominance level at 61% and the midline of the Ethereum channel will be critical turning points to watch.
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