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#TreasuryYieldBreaks5PercentCryptoUnderPressure
10-Year US Treasury Yield Surpassed 5%, Why Is Crypto Under Pressure?
In the May 1, 2025 session, the US 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.03%. This level was last tested in October 2023. 2-year yields have already surpassed it at 5.21%.
Verified reasons:
1. Fed minutes: In the FOMC minutes released on April 30, the phrase “there is a risk of slowdown while inflation moves toward target” appeared. Source: Federal Reserve. 2. Treasury supply: The US Treasury announced an additional $125B in bond issuance for May-July. When supply increases, prices fall and yields rise. 3. Oil impact: With #OilBreaks110, Brent is above $110. Energy inflation spooked bond investors.
So why is this bad for crypto?
1. Risk-free return vs risky return: With a 5% dollar yield, holding cash or buying bonds means a “free” 5%. To earn 5% from BTC, you have to take risk. Capital rotation shifts to bonds. 2. Liquidity drain: When rates rise, the dollar strengthens. DXY is at a 6-month high of 106.4. Historical correlation: DXY +1%, BTC -3% on average. 3. Borrowing cost: The cost for funds using leverage is rising. According to CoinGlass, $180M in longs were liquidated in 24 hours. Funding rates turned negative on most exchanges.
On-chain picture: BTC inflows to exchanges rose 14% in the last 48 hours. CryptoQuant data. Selling pressure is coming. But long-term wallets aren’t selling, only short-term holders are panicking.
On Gate io, demand for USDT interest products rose 28% yesterday. Users are saying, “if I’m not taking risk, I might as well get 5%+ interest.” Fair point.
My strategy: No leverage as long as we stay above 5%. I’m watching the 58k-60k range to accumulate spot BTC/ETH. If Treasury yields return to 4.75, we hit the risk-on button.
Do you think 5% is here to stay? Or will recession fears pull yields back and rocket BTC? Let’s hear your thoughts.
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#TreasuryYieldBreaks5PercentCryptoUnderPressure
Note: This post is not financial advice. Always do your own research (DYOR).