Bitcoin swings back and forth around 78,000, unable to go higher or lower, and the answer is actually hidden in on-chain data.

Now, over 70% of BTC has been locked by long-term holders for more than a year, and these people don't care about short-term prices. So even if there are some small market movements, they can't create a deep dip. Moreover, institutions like BlackRock and MicroStrategy are watching closely below $70k; once it drops, they'll step in to buy.

But going up is also difficult. Near $80k, there are still a large number of retail investors waiting to be liquidated, forming a solid resistance wall.

So the situation has become: retail investors sell when prices rise, institutions buy when prices fall. Both sides are just exhausting each other, waiting for the moment to thoroughly shake out those trapped positions, so the next bull market can truly break out.

What should we do now? Either wait until the price firmly stays above $80k before jumping in, or take advantage of the low to make phased investments—just be patient.