Lately, I’ve been thinking about a question: if China really were to sell off all the U.S. Treasuries it holds, what kind of impact would that have on the global economy? This isn’t a hypothetical question—it’s a real issue that more and more people are discussing.

First, let’s talk numbers. The size of the U.S. national debt has already surpassed $35 trillion, exceeding 120% of its GDP. Put it another way, every person in the United States is carrying about $100,000 worth of debt. And as the second-largest overseas holder of U.S. Treasuries, China holds $771 billion worth of U.S. Treasuries. This figure may not sound huge—it’s only about 2% of $35 trillion—but in international financial markets, that 2% can still stir up quite a bit of turbulence.

Many people imagine how severe the consequences would be if China sold off U.S. Treasuries. In theory, if China suddenly dumped its holdings, the supply of Treasuries would surge, prices would drop directly, and yields would rise. The U.S. government’s borrowing costs would increase, meaning it would have to pay more interest every year. The global economy could see a chain reaction: currencies in other countries would fluctuate, investors would panic, and the global trade order might be thrown into disarray. U.S. financial markets would become unstable, corporate financing costs would rise, and economic growth momentum would lack fuel. It certainly sounds scary.

But in reality, the consequences of China selling off U.S. Treasuries are not good for China itself either. Getting a bunch of U.S. dollar cash sounds appealing, but it comes with the risk of dollar depreciation. China is the world’s largest holder of foreign exchange reserves, and it holds a large amount of U.S. assets. Once the dollar falls, the losses would be substantial. That’s why, for now, China holding U.S. Treasuries rather than selling all of them is actually more worthwhile.

Even more interesting is that countries are now playing a bigger game—de-dollarization. As of last year, nearly half of the countries worldwide have already begun this process. Compared with selling off U.S. Treasuries, de-dollarization is the bigger blow to the U.S. economy.

Over the years, the United States has been following a familiar playbook. When the economy is in trouble, it turns on the money-printing press, and by using quantitative easing to flood the market with money, it increases the supply of dollars, drives down interest rates, and makes it easier to borrow money. U.S. businesses and people can more easily access funds for investment and consumption. But many of the dollars printed by the U.S. flow to other countries—especially those whose economies are relatively fragile. These countries see dollars as cheap and rush to borrow money to invest and spend. The U.S. economy may recover temporarily, but those countries end up accumulating large amounts of dollar-denominated debt.

When the U.S. economy recovers, the Federal Reserve raises interest rates. Once international capital sees that U.S. interest rates are higher, it withdraws funds from other countries and flows back to the United States. The “lost decade” in Latin America, the Southeast Asian financial crisis, and the recent economic turmoil in Argentina and Turkey all have logic like this behind them. Through repeated rounds of economic extraction, the United States transfers its own economic pressures and also takes a large amount of wealth from other countries.

Now, many countries are starting to feel dissatisfied. Emerging economies have seen the unfairness behind dollar hegemony and have decided to pursue more economic autonomy. China, as one of the world’s largest exporters, is gradually promoting the internationalization of the renminbi. The BRICS countries have jointly developed a new financial clearing system, bypassing traditional financial telecommunication alliances and reducing reliance on the dollar. Even some traditional developed countries have begun to follow suit.

So now, China holding U.S. Treasuries has become a form of economic diplomacy. It’s like holding a trump card that can come into play at a critical moment. Rather than thinking about the consequences of China selling off U.S. Treasuries, it’s better to understand why China chooses to hold them. In the larger trend of de-dollarization, the strategic value of U.S. Treasuries may be more important than their cash value.

Given this complicated international economic situation, we need to stay rational. We should both pay attention to global developments and remain grounded. After all, a country’s strength depends on the efforts of every individual, and individuals’ development also depends on the prosperity of the country.