May Trend Outline Brief Discussion:

Fluctuating back and forth, the pattern still remains in the left-side phase, with news coming in rapidly; we need to pay attention to a few points.

1. In the strong bull phase of the U.S. stock market, leading companies are showing impressive data across the board, with supportive momentum, remaining strong in the short term.

2. The May 1st holiday, based on previous similar points, has historically shown signs of an upward trend.

3. The Yellow Hair's visit to China on May 14-15 has a certain calming effect on geopolitical tensions, representing a phased positive signal.

4. Signals of Middle Eastern peace talks are now quite clear, only the signing of the agreement remains, and the positive outlook is self-evident.

5. On-chain from April to May, it is a strong phase characterized by institutional active buying, whales accumulating against the trend, and exchanges having no inventory to sell; buying far exceeds selling, and the on-chain fundamentals are generally bullish.

All five points above are favorable for the crypto market, with the timing window in early May, from May 1 to May 14. However, there are a few points to watch out for, especially in the latter half of May 15, which are all risk zones.

1. After successive changes in Federal Reserve leadership, market reactions have always been risk-averse, and the crypto space has experienced significant drops. If Powell’s first speech after taking office hawks (maintaining high interest rates, accelerating balance sheet reduction), the crypto market is likely to fall 5–10%.

2. Once the U.S. stock market peaks, it can turn around at any time, and the strong cycle could collapse instantly.

3. The Ethereum staking unlock expected in August is already fermenting early. In May, funds may move to risk-off early, selling ETH and related DeFi assets, leading to a market downturn.

These three points are major negative signals. The timing window is after the second half of the 15th. Coupled with recent short-term sentiment, there’s a higher chance of rising first and then falling in May. Therefore, in terms of operation, we need to adjust from the right side upward, initially shorting high and buying low, following the market rhythm mainly on the left side. After testing the 815-830 area, we can then start a large shorting phase!

Short-term support levels: 77,500, 76,300, 74,700. Resistance levels: 79,600, 81,500, 83,600!

Buy on dips to support levels, go long, and go short on the rise! This is the recent strategy! What do you think? Let me know in the comments! #美国寻求战略比特币储备 $BTC $ETH $DOGE #比特币ETF期权持仓限额增4倍 #美联储利率不变但内部分歧加剧 #DeFi4月安全事件损失超6亿美元