The IMF lowers the global economic growth forecast for 2026, citing the significant impact of the Middle East conflict on the current growth momentum.

ME News report. On April 14 (UTC+8), the International Monetary Fund (IMF) released its latest World Economic Outlook report, lowering its forecast for global economic growth in 2026 by 0.2 percentage points to 3.1%. The report says that the conflict in the Middle East has already significantly affected the current momentum of global economic growth. If the fighting and high oil prices continue for longer, global economic growth this year will slow to 2.5% or even lower. Under the “severe scenario,” with the conflict ongoing and financial markets turbulent, the growth rate would fall to 2.0%, putting the global economy on the brink of a recession. The IMF warns that, in the worst case, the global economy could experience a recession. The IMF also states that under the severe scenario, the average oil price is assumed to be $110 per barrel in 2026 and $125 per barrel in 2027, while under the baseline scenario the 2026 oil price is $82 per barrel. (Source: PANews)