What did the crypto community hear from Powell's final press conference?

On April 29th, the interest rate remained unchanged.

The Federal Reserve kept the federal funds rate steady at 3.50% to 3.75%. No rate cuts, no rate hikes, the outcome was completely expected.

But what the market heard was not “holding steady.”

It heard: inflation is still high, oil prices are still volatile, tariff impacts haven’t fully dissipated, Fed officials are starting to argue among themselves, and Powell doesn’t plan to step down immediately.

This was Powell’s last press conference as chair, and also the first time the market saw clearly the mess Kevin Wash might inherit.

For the crypto world, the real issue isn’t whether Powell stays or leaves.

It’s whether money is still cheap or not.

Interest rates unchanged, money flows out

Before the meeting, Bitcoin was still hovering around $77k. Not strong, not weak; after all, in early April, it was still around $65k.

The market was expecting a familiar script: the Fed pauses first, then leaves room for rate cuts, stocks and crypto assets continue to climb. But the door wasn’t closed, and a line of security guards stood at the entrance.

Powell said that monetary policy has no preset path; upcoming decisions depend on data, outlook, and risk balance. In plain language: don’t rush to price in rate cuts.

Spot Bitcoin ETF funds responded first.

According to SoSoValue data, on April 28th, US spot Bitcoin ETF net outflows totaled $77k. On April 29th, Eastern Time, net outflows expanded to about $138 million, marking the third consecutive day of outflows.

This isn’t an epic crash, but the signal is clear: institutions are reluctant to leverage further during the Fed transition, inflation rebound, and oil price surges.

Such funds rarely turn around completely on a single statement, but they will slow down first. Especially when macro signals are still unclear, buying less is itself a stance.

Bitcoin holds the $75k level, Ethereum fluctuates around $2,300. Prices don’t seem to be collapsing yet, but funds are already pulling back.

Four dissenting votes, more embarrassing than no rate cut

The only apparent outcome of this meeting was: keep rates steady.

8 votes in favor, 4 against. Stephen Miran wanted an immediate 25 basis point cut; Beth Hammack, Neel Kashkari, and Lorie Logan supported holding rates but opposed continuing to hint at easing in the statement.

One person thought the cut was too slow, three thought the language was too soft. This isn’t hawks versus doves, but everyone agrees to hold off, yet they’re already arguing over where to strike next.

AP reported this was the largest number of dissenting votes since October 1992. In other words, even before Waller officially took the chair, the committee was already divided.

For stocks and crypto assets, this is more troubling than simply “no rate cut.” Now, rates are held steady, inflation is rising, and officials’ opinions are still divided. Every inflation and employment report could rewrite market expectations anew.

What markets fear most isn’t hawkish or dovish stances, but the uncertainty of who might suddenly change the script at the next meeting.

Crypto markets excel at grand narratives, but prices often only respond to liquidity. When liquidity pathways turn foggy, even the most beautiful stories get discounted first.

The real cold water Powell threw is on inflation

The US unemployment rate in March was 4.3%, little changed; the Fed’s preferred inflation indicator was 3.5% year-over-year, core inflation 3.2% year-over-year. Both inflation figures remain above the Fed’s 2% target.

On one side, Middle East conflicts push up global oil prices; on the other, tariffs continue to feed into goods prices. Powell said the Fed has assumed tariffs would cause a one-time price increase that would fade over time, but the next two quarters must show that it really happens.

His message is straightforward: in theory, central banks can penetrate short-term oil price shocks; in reality, oil shocks haven’t fully played out, and inflation has been above target for years, so now is not the time to blindly cut rates.

This statement hits the crypto world with a different version:

Don’t mistake “pause rate hikes” for “immediate easing.”

In recent years, whenever macro pain hit, markets started fantasizing about rate cuts; stocks and crypto would fall, and everyone would imagine the Fed coming to rescue. But this time, inflation is driven by oil prices and tariffs, and rate cuts could either save assets or reignite inflation expectations.

So, they can only wait. Waiting itself is a form of punishment for highly leveraged markets. As long as real interest rates stay high, the cost of holding positions remains.

For crypto, this is more painful than a simple “no rate cut” because it’s not just short-term pain; it’s tightening the very water pipe that the bull market most desires.

Waller is not a savior for crypto

Many interpret Kevin Waller’s potential succession as a bullish signal for crypto markets. There’s some basis: he’s considered more attuned to market signals and has viewed Bitcoin as an important asset and policy pressure gauge. He opposed the Fed directly issuing digital dollars to the public in Senate hearings, which isn’t bad news for private stablecoins.

But if you think Waller will immediately open champagne for crypto, think again.

If Waller takes over, he inherits not a new machine but a dashboard already smoking: inflation still high, oil prices volatile, tariffs not fully digested, and four dissenting votes on the table.

More critically, Powell has not truly left.

He explicitly said that after his term ends on May 15, he will remain on the board as a governor for some time. AP reported this will be the first time since 1948 that a former Fed chair continues to serve as a board member.

This has two sides for Bitcoin. On one hand, central bank independence is being torn by political pressure, which might renew some belief in the significance of “non-sovereign assets.” On the other hand, narratives can’t pay your financing costs. If rates stay high and inflation persists, markets might not be trading “knowledgeable crypto-friendly chair,” but “more unpredictable Fed.”

In other words, Waller might bring a more friendly long-term outlook for crypto, but short-term pricing power still lies with inflation and interest rates.

That’s very crypto.

Good news is real, bad news is real too.

Summary

The long-term door isn’t closed either.

The “Digital Asset Market Clarity Act” has passed the House and is now transferred to the Senate Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs Committee. It aims to redraw the regulatory landscape for US crypto assets: giving the Commodity Futures Trading Commission a more central role in crypto trading, while retaining some authority for the SEC in certain issuance and trading aspects.

Stablecoins are also being brought into more formal policy discussions. A report from the White House Economic Advisory Council on April 8 said that, under normal assumptions, banning stablecoin yields would only lead banks to extend an additional $2.1 billion in loans, about 0.02% of total loans, but users would lose about $800 million in benefits. Even with the most aggressive assumptions, expanding the stablecoin market to roughly six times its current size would only add $531 billion in loans, increasing bank lending by 4.4%.

These are long-term positives. But in the short term, all stories must first pass the Fed’s test.

Powell’s last appearance at the podium didn’t leave the market with a pretty sentence.

He left a more realistic question: when the crypto market is finally about to be embraced by the system, can it first endure a period of more expensive money?

Money hasn’t gone far, just gotten more expensive.