Seeing someone use the stablecoin supply curve to argue "ETF inflows mean prices will go up," I find that causal chain a bit unconvincing. An increase in stablecoins might just be a delayed reflection of exchanges and market makers stocking up, cross-chain arbitrage, or even treasury bookkeeping; the off-exchange funds in ETFs could also be flowing through other channels, and timing alignment doesn't mean it's the same batch of money. Frankly, I prefer to think of it as a "liquidity thermometer," not a steering wheel.

The play-to-earn model is even more obvious: when inflation kicks in, studios siphon off liquidity, and the price drops, spiraling downward. On-chain data looks lively but is actually just fuel burning. Anyway, right now I only look at two things regarding capital: where the money comes from and how it wants to move; for unclear exits, no matter how high the "correlation," I don't dare to hold large positions.