I recently heard an interesting analysis by a well-known macro analyst at a major blockchain conference, and there was a thought that stuck with me: liquidity explains about 90% of Bitcoin's movement, not the four-year halving cycle, as many are used to thinking.

Raoul Pal, if you don't know, has long been following macroeconomics and crypto from this angle. And his logic is simple — global liquidity is preparing for an explosion in 2026 due to the simultaneous convergence of several factors: fiscal stimulus, money issuance through regulatory mechanisms, changes in banking rules (SLR), dollar weakening, and new repo operations. All of this is expected to start working as early as January-February.

Interestingly, when Raoul Pal talked about this, there were many skeptics around, convinced that we are entering a bear market. But he countered: if Bitcoin hits new highs while most altcoins do not, that’s not a bear. That’s a correction within a bullish cycle. Remember 2021 — there was a 50% drop in the middle, and no one thought it was the end. That’s normal.

In practice, he advises watching: the growth of the global money supply M2, dollar movements, decisions by the Fed and Treasury, changes in banking regulation. It sounds boring, but these are real catalysts that move capital.

There was long debate about altcoins — where is the altseason? Raoul Pal explains this through the business cycle and the ISM manufacturing index. When the ISM crosses above 50, risk appetite will explode, Bitcoin dominance will decline, and smart contract platforms will grow. That will be the start of a real altseason, not just a capital rotation.

Regarding competition with AI stocks like NVIDIA — his answer was straightforward: retail investors are seeking maximum growth potential. If Bitcoin can double, an altcoin can grow tenfold. People will always chase asymmetric returns. Plus, crypto remains underfunded by institutions compared to AI.

Token dilution? Raoul Pal believes that’s not a problem. The scale of global capital entering crypto for the first time outshines any unlockings. Each cycle brings more inflows than the previous one.

His approach to selecting altcoins is strict: stick to main L1s (Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana, plus new ones like Sui), look at real network metrics (active users and transaction value), evaluate everything relative to Solana, and only turn when the chart and fundamentals align. That’s why he switched to Sui at the start of the cycle — the network was one of the fastest-growing, and data confirmed the chart.

By 2026, Raoul Pal sees real narratives: AI plus crypto (real use cases, not hype), stablecoins and settlement networks, high-throughput L1s, digital art and NFTs as a counterbalance.

His final advice: just hold a basket of quality assets — BTC, ETH, SOL or main L1s. Don’t use leverage, limit speculation to 5-10%. If people simply held such a portfolio, they would outperform 99% of daily traders.

If Raoul Pal’s forecast is correct, 2026 could become one of the strongest liquidity cycles. The main thing — not to spoil it.