Market Overview on May 2: Nasdaq first drops below 25,000, Iran submits new proposal, oil prices fall below $105

Author: Deep Tide TechFlow

U.S. Stocks: The NASDAQ hits 25,000—an unprecedent number

On Friday, the NASDAQ Composite closed at 25,114.44 points, marking the first time in human financial history that the weekend arrived with the index above 25,000.

The S&P 500 rose 0.29% to 7,230.12 points, continuing to set fresh record highs. The Dow Jones fell 0.31% to 49,499.27 points—just 500 points away from the round-number 50,000 level, but it never managed to cross it. The Russell 2000 gained 0.46%, and the VIX closed at 16.99, with fear staying anchored at low levels.

This week, Wall Street pulled off an almost unbelievable finish: with Brent crude surging to $126 on the intraday session, Powell’s 8-to-4 split vote delivering his farewell, and MAG4 collectively announcing a $725 billion cash splash, the S&P 500 gained on the week, the NASDAQ rose on the week, and the broader market held its ground at fresh historical highs.

The logic behind Friday’s gains—and all of April, for that matter—was the same: earnings reports, and still Apple.

Apple jumped another ~3% on Friday, turning last night’s after-hours earnings boost into official intraday gains. The prior day, Alphabet’s after-hours surge of 9% had already partially digested the move by Thursday, and on Friday it kept running ahead of the broader market. Qualcomm jumped 15%, lifting an entire semiconductor sub-sector; the key was that line: “A custom chip collaboration with a certain leading super customer is progressing as planned, with the first batch of shipments expected within the year.” No names were mentioned, but the market understood.

Yet the divergence on this day was just as clear. SanDisk was the most ironic example: Q1 revenue of $5.95 billion, up sharply year over year; adjusted EPS of $23.41, well above expectations of $14.51; and Q4 guidance of $775–825 million, also exceeding market consensus of $665 million. From any angle, this is a strong set of results. Still, the stock closed down by about 5%. The reason is simple: since the start of the year, it has already risen more than 360%, and the market chose to lock in profits on good news. Whether the earnings are good or not is secondary—the real question is how much the stock price climbed before the earnings.

Roblox plunged by about 17%. The online gaming platform sharply cut its full-year guidance, blaming the newly launched age-verification system. To meet regulators’ requirements for protecting minors, Roblox began enforcing age verification for U.S. users, causing a large outflow of younger users amid friction. This is a story specific to 2026: the first major publicly traded victim of the triangular game among regulation, child safety, and growth targets.

Both Exxon and Chevron, two energy giants, delivered earnings that beat expectations, but both also filed numbers with revenue below expectations. The reason was a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz that disrupted Middle East oil production and transportation, limiting output and dragging on sales. Exxon’s net profit fell 45% year over year, and Chevron’s dropped 36%. While oil prices doubled, their own production was held back by the war—an irony deep enough to sting.

LSEG’s latest data this week shows: more than 80% of S&P 500 constituents have already reported their Q1 results. The expected profit growth rate has been revised up sharply, from 16.1% before this earnings season began to 27.8%, the strongest single quarter since Q4 2021. This is the most solid underlying logic behind this market rebound: it’s driven by real profits, not liquidity.

Oil Prices: Iran submits a new proposal—$108 as a price discovery for a “peace premium”

Friday’s oil trading was the most interesting day since the outbreak of war.

Before the market opened, Iranian state media reported: Tehran passed, via Pakistan, the latest revised documents on peace negotiations to the U.S. on Thursday night. Pakistani officials confirmed to the media that the document had been delivered to the U.S., expressing cautious optimism that it was “closer than ever to reaching an agreement.”

The news immediately knocked down the panic premium that Brent had built up from the previous day’s $126 peak. WTI crude fell by more than 3% and closed at $101.94 per barrel—its first close below $102 in more than two weeks. Brent fell by about 2% and closed at $108.17.

Then Trump appeared.

At the White House, he told reporters: “Iran wants to talk, but I’m not satisfied with their proposal. Iran actually has no army.” His tone was milder than in the past few weeks. He didn’t mention “Black Hawk,” and he didn’t talk about intensive strikes. What the market read from the signals was: negotiations haven’t been terminated—they’re still in the bargaining process.

On the same day, Trump also publicly stated he would ignore the 60-day congressional authorization deadline under the War Powers Resolution, calling the law “unconstitutional” and saying that “every president has exceeded it.” Democrats in Congress began discussing whether to launch a legal challenge, but almost no one believed it would constrain the war process in the short term.

With oil settling in the $102–108 range, the market found a delicate middle price: $126 was the panic price when the “intensive strike plan” became public; $95 was the rebound price early in the war; and $108 is the realistic price reflecting that “negotiations are not dead, but also haven’t succeeded.” On this day, the market completed a meaningful calibration of pricing.

Gold rose slightly on Friday to $4,625 per ounce, recovering about 1.6% from the $4,550 low two days earlier. As oil prices pulled back, the U.S. dollar index weakened slightly, giving gold some room to breathe. The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury fell from this week’s high of 4.41% to about 4.38%.

Cryptocurrency: Bitcoin +2.4% rebounds, but the Las Vegas conference price calls didn’t work

In the season when Bitcoin conferences can always manufacture price volatility, the 2026 Las Vegas event delivered an unusually calm lesson for the market.

The Bitcoin 2026 conference was held in Las Vegas this week. The lineup on stage was nothing short of star-studded: Eric Trump (Trump’s son and co-founder of American Bitcoin), Michael Saylor (Strategy CEO), Senator Cynthia Lummis, Senator Bernie Moreno, and in addition a representative team from the White House’s “AI and Crypto Czar.” A full line of some of the most powerful Bitcoin advocates in the U.S. delivered talks in sequence.

Eric Trump’s exact words: “I have absolute belief that Bitcoin will reach $1 million. I don’t know whether it’s 2030 or 2031, but it will.” Saylor’s target price was even higher. Everyone who took the stage talked about “the greatest era,” “institutions flowing in,” and “the government will never sell it.”

A Bloomberg reporter was there and published what turned out to be the clearest, most sober piece of coverage this week. The headline read: “Bitcoin’s price stalls amid Las Vegas bull-market hype.” The report noted that while all the celebrities on stage were shouting price targets into microphones, Bitcoin was still trading sideways around $76,000, and that “the influence of evangelist strategies on price has stopped working.”

That’s an exact description of the market’s current situation.

But on Friday, something real changed: oil prices fell 3% on Iran’s peace proposal, risk appetite improved, and Bitcoin surged from an early-session low of $76,130 to $78,147. It closed up 2.41% for the day, with CoinGecko’s closing price matching Yahoo Finance. Ethereum also rose by about 2% in sync. The total global crypto market cap rebounded to about $2.68 trillion. The Fear & Greed Index recovered from 39 (fear) at the beginning of the week to the 43–45 range (neutral to cautious).

The source of this rally wasn’t that line of microphones on stage—it was an early price signal tied to expectations that the Strait of Hormuz would reopen.

What makes today’s Bitcoin action even more worth recording is the conclusion of a research report published on the same day. Citing data, Invezz said: since the war broke out on February 28, Bitcoin is up about 20% in cumulative terms. Over the same period, the S&P 500 is up about 8% and gold is up about 5%. This is the first time in history that Bitcoin has simultaneously outperformed all major traditional safe-haven assets during a major geopolitical conflict. BlackRock IBIT, Strategy, and other institutional long-term holdings have been acting as a floor amid the sell-offs driven by panic from oil-price shocks.

There’s also a hidden signal: Morgan Stanley this month officially launched its Bitcoin ETF product (Morgan Stanley Bitcoin Trust, MSBT), and publicly advised clients to allocate 2–4% of their portfolios to Bitcoin. Managing $7.35 trillion in assets, Morgan Stanley has now also turned into a stock-recommender for Bitcoin.

Today’s wrap-up: NASDAQ breaks 25,000, but the real question is when Hormuz will reopen

On May 1, the first trading day, the market ended with a historic-level number.

U.S. Stocks: NASDAQ closed at 25,114.44 (first time ever above 25,000), S&P 500 closed at 7,230.12, and the Dow fell 0.31% to close at 49,499.27. Apple +3%, Qualcomm +15%, and Alphabet up again. Roblox -17%, SanDisk -5%, and Meta continues digesting results. Over 80% of S&P 500 companies have reported Q1 earnings; profit growth expectations have risen to 27.8%, the strongest since 2021 Q4.

Oil/Gold: Iran submitted its latest peace proposal via Pakistan. Brent fell 2% to $108.17, and WTI fell 3% to $101.94, down $17 from the $126 high. Trump said he was “not satisfied,” but the war rhetoric clearly softened. Gold rebounded slightly to $4,625.

Cryptocurrency: Bitcoin closed at $78,147, up 2.41% on the day. This week’s first notable rebound was driven by the return of risk appetite brought by Iran’s peace proposal—not the $1 million price calls at Las Vegas. Total crypto market cap is about $2.68 trillion, and the Fear & Greed Index is at 43, recovering from the fear zone.

Now the market only cares about one question: did Trump actually buy into this new proposal?

Iran’s latest document is said to have made concessions on the issue of “delaying nuclear talks,” which is the core sticking point Trump rejected last time. If this time the talks can move into substantive negotiations, the reopening of Hormuz could happen faster than anyone expects. If Trump continues to refuse, within the next 60 days he won’t only be facing Iran—he’ll also face congressional debates over war powers authorization, and whether oil prices can withstand higher levels.

At least on this Friday, one thing is already certain: $108 Brent is the market’s pricing of “negotiations not dead.” Compared with $126, that $17 gap is the most expensive thread of breathing space for the global economy.