May Flip: Is “Sell in May and Go Away” Really True?

Every spring, we hear the same saying in cryptocurrency and stock markets: “Sell in May and go away.” In other words, sell in May, spend the summer on vacation, and return around October or November. Is this rule still valid in 2026? Is May truly risky for Bitcoin, Ethereum, and altcoins?
1. Where does the phrase “Sell in May” come from?
The tradition of “Sell in May” is based on stock market data dating back to 1928. According to Dow Jones data, the S&P 500 rises by an average of 2.4 percent in the six months ending in October, while the average return from November to April is 5.2 percent. Over the past fifty years, summer months have returned an average of +4.25 percent. So, historically, summer has been weaker, but not entirely negative.
This picture has changed over the past decade. Since 2016, the S&P 500 has achieved an average return of 6.9 percent from May to October. The return from November to April is 6.2 percent. Last year, the S&P 500 fell 4 percent from January to April, then rebounded strongly during the summer.
The final result: liquidity decreases in summer, ETF inflows slow down, and new product launches decline. But saying “certain losses” is no longer accurate.
2. May in cryptocurrencies: the most volatile month
Ethereum data is clear. May is the most unpredictable month for ETH. According to CoinGlass, the average and median returns for May reach the extremes compared to other months — either very high gains or sharp declines. Analyst Daan Crypto Trades said, “May usually brings big volatility, not a clear trend.”
Bitcoin’s May performance is mixed. Since 2013, it closed in the red six times and in the green seven times. The average gain is 27 percent, and the average loss is 16 percent. The steepest declines were -19 percent in 2018 and -35 percent in 2021. Historically, May is the fourth-best month for Bitcoin.
As we enter May 2026, the situation is: Bitcoin trading in the range of $76,000–$77,000 and Ethereum in the range of $2,260–$2,350. Bitcoin’s volatility over 7 days has risen to 83 percent. Considering the S&P 500 surged 169 percent on the same scale, cryptocurrencies are relatively calm. However, derivatives data is cautious. Funding rates are negative, and demand for downside protection in options is high.
3. Four factors making May 2026 different
Macroeconomic winds: Manufacturing data from ISM, JOLTS, non-farm payrolls, and unemployment released in early May are important for the Federal Reserve’s interest rate path. Strong data boost the dollar and keep the Fed in “wait and watch” mode. Weak data re-ignite expectations of rate cuts and fuel cryptocurrencies. Currently, the Fed rate is in the 3.50–3.75 percent range, with the highest number of dissenting members since 1992 — four.
Geopolitics and oil: Tensions with Iran are in their third month. With the Strait of Hormuz at risk, Brent prices temporarily touched $125. If energy prices push inflation higher, central banks will delay rate cuts. This puts pressure on high-risk assets, including cryptocurrencies.
Derivatives market: On May 1, Bitcoin options worth $2.14 billion expired. The maximum pain level was at $76,000. Historically, after expiry, volatility increases by 4–12 percent over 3–7 days. For Ethereum, the maximum pain level was at $2,050 with $330 million expiring.
Whale positions: On Ethereum, the buy-to-sell ratio for buyers is above 1. This means aggressive buyers outnumber sellers. One whale opened a long position worth $90.9 million using 20x leverage on ETH. Meanwhile, large wallets sold. A total of 9,765 ETH were sold for $22.46 million USDC. This contradiction increases the likelihood of May volatility.
4. What does institutional money say?
Michael Hartnett from Bank of America published his “Buy and Sell in May” list. Buys include: semiconductors, oil stocks, Taiwan, technology, and AI stocks. Sells include: Chinese tech, defense, healthcare, and bonds. Hartnett expects a cyclical rebound if the ISM index approaches 60.
For crypto funds: Eltican Asset Management returned 17 percent in April and rose 19 percent in 2026. Long and short altcoin positions performed well. Institutional ETF inflows continue. BlackRock’s Bitcoin fund saw inflows of $817 million. However, spot demand remains inconsistent.
5. So, should you sell or rotate?
History sends a clear message. Completely exiting the market does not yield good long-term results. Investing $1,000 in the S&P 500 in 1976 would have grown to $294,795 by the end of 2025 using a “buy and hold” strategy. But with “sell in May and buy in October,” the result was only $46,351.
The right strategy is to rotate. In the last 10 May–October periods, defensive stocks — infrastructure, consumer staples, healthcare — outperformed the index in 7 cases. In cryptocurrencies, this means increasing weight in large coins like Bitcoin and Ethereum and reducing leverage. Jeff Hersch suggests balancing risk with short-term T-bills and investment-grade bonds.
Three scenarios for May 2026:
1. Optimistic: If Bitcoin surpasses $80,000 and Ethereum exceeds $2,450, funds flow into altcoins. The average May return for Ethereum is 34 percent. 2. Neutral: If Bitcoin stays in the $75,000–$79,000 range, consolidation continues. Selective rebounds in altcoins appear. 3. Pessimistic: Closing below $75,000 could trigger a 5–7 percent correction. Support at $72,000–$73,500.
Summary: Don’t apply the rule blindly
Has the “sell and go away in May” phrase died in 2026? No, but it has evolved. Liquidity declines in summer, and macro risks increase. Oil at $120, the Strait of Hormuz closed, and the Fed divided. Leveraged trading is risky in this environment.
But the data is also clear. Over the past decade, summer months have yielded better returns than winter months. In cryptocurrencies, May is the most volatile month but also the month with the highest average return. Instead of completely exiting, it makes sense to reduce position sizes, use stop-loss orders, and rotate into defensive assets.
At Gate, we recommend: don’t leave the market, manage your risks. Don’t relax during the summer lull. Place stop-loss orders and watch for opportunities. Because volatility is a risk for those prepared, and a danger for those unprepared.
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