Bitunix Analyst: Central banks worldwide are beginning to simultaneously cease forecasts, and the market has officially entered a stagflation pricing phase

ME News Report, May 1st (UTC+8), the true change in the market is no longer which central bank raises or cuts interest rates, but that major global central banks are beginning to enter a “wait-and-see mode” simultaneously. The Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank, and the Bank of England are all holding steady, but unlike in the past, none of them are willing to clearly indicate the future direction this time.
The reason is quite straightforward—after energy prices spiraled out of control again, inflation and the economy are moving in opposite directions simultaneously.
U.S. Q1 GDP growth rate was only 2% annualized, below expectations, but the March PCE annual rate rose to 3.5%, the highest in nearly three years;
Eurozone GDP nearly stagnated, but inflation also rose back to 3%;
The Bank of England has even begun to hint that future rate hikes may be necessary again.
This indicates that the global economy is gradually entering its most troublesome phase: growth is slowing down, but inflation is reigniting due to energy issues.
More importantly, the market is now beginning to realize that the risks in the Middle East may not be truly resolved in the short term.
Although U.S. officials claim “hostile actions have ended,” Trump also stated that the ceasefire could be broken, Israel warned of possible military action against Iran again, and the actual blockade and military pressure in the Strait of Hormuz remain unresolved.
This suggests that the current ceasefire is more like a temporary delay in conflict rather than the risks truly disappearing.
Therefore, global central banks are now caught in the same dilemma: continuing to maintain high interest rates will further cool the economy; but cutting rates too early could cause oil prices and supply chain pressures to reignite inflation.
This is also why, despite recent AI and big tech stocks continuously driving U.S. stocks higher, with Alphabet soaring 10% in a single day, the bond market has started to reprice another issue—high interest rates may stay longer than the market initially expected.
Recently, U.S. Treasury yields have risen again, fundamentally reflecting the market’s reassessment of “stagflation risk.”
For the crypto market, BTC still benefits from risk asset preferences and institutional capital inflows, but if the global market shifts from a “soft landing” back to a “stagflation trade,” the volatility of high-valuation assets could significantly increase.
Especially as the market begins to doubt whether the Federal Reserve has lost room to cut rates and a clear direction, liquidity expectations will once again become the biggest pressure source for risk assets.
(Source: BlockBeats)