Analysis: Bitcoin halving cycle has passed its halfway point, but the price increase lags behind historical trends; asset maturity has increased, suppressing volatility and returns.

ME News report: On April 14 (UTC+8), Bitcoin has entered the midpoint of this halving cycle (approximately 50.01%). The next halving is expected to take place on April 12, 2028. This cycle (Epoch 5) began in April 2024, and a halving is triggered every 210,000 blocks, reducing the miner block reward to the current 3.125 BTC, with about 450 units of new supply added daily. Data shows that since the 2024 halving, Bitcoin has risen by approximately 15%, performing noticeably worse than the gains seen in previous cycles over the same period, continuing the “diminishing returns” trend. Previously, the price reached a high of about $126k in October 2025, before falling back to around $60k. Analysts believe this change is mainly because Bitcoin is gradually moving into a more mature asset stage: as market capitalization expands and institutional participation increases, the amount of capital required to drive a major price surge has risen significantly, while volatility continues to decline, causing the price trend to become more steady and gradual. Bitcoin’s current maximum total supply is 21 million coins; about 20 million have already been mined. The remaining roughly 1 million is expected to be gradually released over the next approximately 114 years, with the scarcity mechanism continuing to strengthen its long-term value support. (Source: ODAILY)