These days, I've seen people equate "an increase in stablecoin supply = bullish" and "ETF inflows = immediate price rally" directly, and I can't help but feel a bit overwhelmed... Correlation does not equal causation. An increase in stablecoins might just mean everyone is converting their coins into "cash waiting for opportunities," and ETF inflows could be just slow accumulation off-chain, not an immediate on-chain follow-up.

If I had looked a bit more at where the funds were going at the time, whether they had returned on-chain to do things (lending, market making, or just lying around), I might have avoided a few traps of "thinking it's a signal when it's actually noise." Recently, the social mining and fan token schemes that say "attention is mining" also seem quite similar—it's lively, but attention does not equal liquidity, let alone exitable liquidity. Anyway, I'm now just watching one thing: whether the path can be reproduced and whether someone will take over when exiting, not just getting excited.