Analysis: In the current market downturn, the risk of a short squeeze is greater than the risk of short covering, and the pressure on long positions’ funding fees continues to heat up.
Murphy pointed out that perpetual contract funding fees are high, with longs paying shorts approximately $390k per hour, indicating that bullish sentiment is dominant but costs are rising. Since the 7-day moving average turned positive on May 12, long premiums have continued to expand; if prices do not rebound quickly, some longs may close positions due to cost pressures. Open interest for unclosed contracts has decreased, and liquidation and deleveraging are underway. If BTC falls below a key support level, it could trigger a chain of forced liquidations and long squeezes. Currently, spot demand and on-chain activity are relatively low, increasing the risk of leveraged trading, so caution is advised; those dollar-cost averaging into spot or gradually building long-term positions can maintain their strategies.