Analysis: Bitcoin halving cycle has passed its halfway point, but the price increase lags behind historical trends; asset maturity has increased, suppressing volatility and returns.

ME News report, April 14 (UTC+8): Bitcoin has now entered the midpoint of this halving cycle (approximately 50.01%). The next halving is expected to take place on April 12, 2028. This cycle (Epoch 5) began in April 2024; a halving is triggered every 210,000 blocks, reducing miners’ block rewards to the current 3.125 BTC, with an average daily new supply of about 450 BTC. Data shows that since the 2024 halving, Bitcoin has gained approximately 15% in total, performing noticeably weaker than the price gains during the same period of previous cycles, continuing the “diminishing returns” trend. Previously, the price reached a high of about $126,000 in October 2025, before falling back to around the $60,000 level. Analysts believe this change is mainly due to Bitcoin gradually moving into a more mature asset stage: as market capitalization expands and institutional participation increases, the capital required to drive a major surge in price has risen significantly, while volatility continues to decline, making the price trend steadier. Bitcoin’s current total supply cap is 21 million, of which about 20 million has been mined; the remaining roughly 1 million is expected to be gradually released over the next approximately 114 years, with the scarcity mechanism continuing to strengthen its long-term value support. (Source: ODAY)