#比特币现货交易量新低 #Gate广场五月交易分享 Bitcoin prices rebounded and rose in April, but actual demand remains insufficient—here is the meaning of the cryptocurrency warning

Spot demand remains weak, indicating potential reserves are fragile.
Although on-chain signals are cautious, the market remains divided due to traders' expectations of a rise. Bitcoin undoubtedly performed strongly in April. Prices increased by nearly 20%, climbing from about $66,000 to a peak close to $79,000. On the surface, this looks like a nice breakout, one that could re-attract market attention. But behind this move, the story is not that simple. It suggests that this rally may not be built on a solid foundation.
In fact, it may be more driven by speculation rather than actual demand, and actual demand... is often the key. Futures demand leads, while spot buyers remain silent. Reports indicate that this rally was entirely driven by perpetual futures trading. Perpetual futures trading is essentially leverage trading, which is betting on the price. The direction does not refer to the actual amount of Bitcoin purchased.
Meanwhile, spot demand (i.e., investors' actual accumulation of Bitcoin) has remained negative throughout the month. It is this gap that makes things interesting. CryptoQuant’s “apparent demand” indicator has never turned positive during the rally, meaning real buyers have not entered the market as expected during the strong upward trend.

Upward trend
Historically, such divergence does not always lead to good outcomes. This is not the first time we have seen this pattern.
Analysts point out: similar situations occurred in early 2022, when futures demand rose while spot demand quietly declined. This phase happened just before Bitcoin’s price plummeted, ultimately erasing about 70% of its value. But this does not mean history will repeat exactly, though the similarities... are hard to ignore.
When a rally is mainly driven by leverage, once positions start to unwind, the upward momentum can quickly reverse. Early signs of weakness have already appeared, with Bitcoin beginning to retreat slightly from April’s high, falling to around $76,000. Although the decline is modest, it aligns with expectations of a rally lacking strong spot support. Meanwhile, CryptoQuant’s bull market score index fell from 50 to 40 in April. This drop pushes it back into bear market territory, indicating that overall market strength may be waning, even if prices have not fully reflected this. The market remains optimistic... at least for now. Interestingly, not everyone is so bearish; market data shows many traders still expect Bitcoin to rise in the short term, with a higher likelihood of reaching $84,000 rather than dropping to $55,000. So, the market is somewhat divided at the moment.
On one hand, people are cautious about on-chain data. On the other hand, optimism comes from traders betting on continued price increases. For Bitcoin to truly break through higher levels and hold, something needs to change.
Spot demand must rebound. Otherwise, any momentum toward previous highs may be difficult to sustain. For now, this rebound looks strong on the surface... but in reality, it still lacks deeper confidence.