5.1 Crude Oil Market Outlook by Shiyuan

Although oil prices closed slightly lower intraday, the two major benchmark crude oil varieties still achieved four consecutive months of gains. The core driver is market concern over the prolonged geopolitical conflict with Iran, continuously disrupting the global crude oil supply chain, with supply-side uncertainties providing strong support for oil prices.

Regarding geopolitical tensions, U.S. officials have signaled that they are studying further pressure measures against Iran, attempting to push both sides back to the negotiation track; Iran, on the other hand, has taken a firm stance, explicitly warning that it will take strong retaliatory measures if attacked, and emphasizing control over the Strait of Hormuz, making the navigation prospects of this critical global energy route increasingly uncertain, with geopolitical risks continuing to escalate.

In the short term, the core support range is between 110.8 and 120. The 4-hour cycle indicates that the short-term key resistance zone is locked at 105–106.5. Future market focus will be on the breakout of these ranges.