I just came across an interesting topic about a market cycle theory proposed by 19th-century American farmer Samuel Benner. To be honest, the Benner Cycle isn’t discussed much in the crypto community, but I think it’s worth a deep dive.

Benner himself wasn’t a professional economist; he was a pig farmer and merchant. But because he experienced multiple financial crises and harvest failures, he gained a unique perspective on market cyclicality. In 1875, he published "Benner's Prophecies," where he systematically summarized a pattern: markets are not randomly fluctuating but follow predictable cyclical patterns.

The core of this theory is simple, divided into three types of years. Type A years are panic years; historically, 1927, 1945, 1965, 1981, 1999, and 2019 all corresponded with market crises. Type B years are high-price periods, suitable for selling, such as 1926, 1945, 1962, 1980, and 2007. Type C years are buying opportunities, like 1931, 1942, 1958, 1985, and 2012, during lows.

I noticed an interesting detail—Benner initially studied agricultural products and commodities, but later traders extended this theory to stocks, bonds, and now cryptocurrencies. What does this suggest? It indicates that market psychological cycles transcend asset classes; no matter what you trade, human greed and fear drive prices.

For crypto traders, the Benner Cycle is especially valuable. Bitcoin’s four-year halving cycle itself reflects a certain periodicity, and because the crypto market is highly emotional, this cyclicality often manifests more clearly. We’ve all experienced the market panic in 2019, and seen accumulation phases at lows in 2012 and 2020.

Using Benner’s framework, 2026 is expected to be a Type B year, meaning a high-price period. This suggests that if you accumulated positions recently or in the first half of the year, you might consider selling in stages at the right peaks. Conversely, if a future low occurs during a C-year, it’s a great opportunity to aggressively accumulate assets like Bitcoin and Ethereum.

My feeling is that although the Benner Cycle is a 19th-century theory, it captures the essence of market behavior—cyclicality. Whether in traditional finance or crypto markets, this pattern is at work. For traders aiming to build a long-term investment framework, understanding the Benner Cycle can help you avoid chasing highs and selling lows, and instead make strategic buy and sell decisions at key moments. Recently, I’ve also been watching some related assets on Gate.io; if you’re interested, you can check them out yourself.