U.S. CLARITY Act, a watershed in May's review... Will it reach Trump's signature?

The “CLARITY Act,” which sets the tone for the U.S. digital asset regulatory framework, has actually entered a critical watershed just before May. Although key senators in the Senate believe it is highly likely to be addressed within the year, the probability of the bill passing is rapidly decreasing in prediction markets, and tensions are mounting.

According to reports from industry insiders and foreign media on the 13th, Senator Tim Scott, chairman of the Senate Banking Committee, stated that the CLARITY Act has entered the “red zone.” This means the bill will be submitted to the committee for review in May, with the earliest possible full Senate vote expected in June or July. He also mentioned the possibility of President Trump signing it before this summer.

Other senators are also contributing. Senator Cynthia Lummis said at the “Bitcoin 2026” conference that the market structure bill will be reviewed in May and stated, “We will stick to it.” Senator Tom Tillis also supports pushing the bill forward, while Senator Bernie Moreno warned that if the deadline of late May is missed, delays could become very long due to political schedules.

However, industry opinions are more cautious. Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse pushed back the expected timeline from April to May, stating, “If it doesn’t pass now, it could be very difficult in the short term.” Prediction markets like Polymarket give a 46% chance of signing the bill within 2026, down sharply from 82% in February. Kalshi also estimates a 19% chance of approval before July and 37% before August.

Remaining points of contention are also numerous. First, interest-based yields on stablecoins are very likely to be prohibited, but reward programs linked to usage behavior may still be permitted. Additionally, Democrats are demanding restrictions on the virtual asset holdings or earnings of President Trump, key figures, and their families. Political conflicts surrounding Trump-related projects are seen as a variable.

The market believes this topic has gone beyond a simple legislative issue and has become a watershed for determining the “regulatory baseline” of the U.S. virtual asset market. Whether it can clear the first hurdle in May will decide if major cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) will again change their expectations of being incorporated into the regulatory system.

Article summary by TokenPost.ai

🔎 Market interpretation
The CLARITY Act is the core bill that determines the regulatory baseline for the U.S. virtual asset market. Whether it can be reviewed in May is a watershed for market direction.
Although the political sphere is optimistic, prediction markets reflect a decreasing probability, and uncertainty is expanding.

💡 Strategic key points
Whether it can pass committee review in May may become a key trigger for short-term market sentiment.
If delayed, regulatory uncertainty will become long-term → Strategies centered on large assets are more advantageous compared to altcoins.
If the passage is expected, exchanges and infrastructure-related tokens may benefit.

📘 Terminology explanation
CLARITY Act: A bill that clearly delineates the regulatory authority of the SEC and CFTC over digital assets.
Prediction markets: Markets that display the probability of specific events occurring through trading (such as Polymarket).
Stablecoin interest restrictions: Regulatory contentious points aimed at preventing the financialization of deposit-type products.

💡 Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)

Q. Why is the CLARITY Act important?
This bill is the first major legislation to clearly define the standards for regulating cryptocurrencies. If passed, market uncertainty will decrease and it may influence institutional capital inflows.

Q. Is the likelihood of it passing high at present?
Although the political sphere is optimistic, the probability reflected in prediction markets has significantly declined. Especially if beyond May, the chances of schedule delays will increase.

Q. If it passes, what impact will it have on the investment market?
If regulation becomes clear, expectations for major assets like Bitcoin and Ethereum to be incorporated into the regulatory system may increase. Conversely, if the bill is delayed, the market may enter another phase of uncertainty.

TP AI notes:
Using a language model based on TokenPost.ai, the article has been summarized. The main content may be omitted or inconsistent with facts.