#Gate广场五月交易分享 Officially entering May! Bitcoin is about to experience a major market shift—bull run or crash?

1. Federal Reserve & Inflation
1. Last night’s Federal Reserve decision: keep interest rates unchanged, but hawkish tone exceeded expectations
2. Benchmark interest rate at 3.5%–3.75% remains unchanged, but four dissenting votes (the highest since 1992), indicating a clear hawkish shift internally
3. Powell’s statement: inflation is “high,” no longer “slightly elevated,” significantly weakening expectations of rate cuts this year, and the market is starting to price in “higher interest rates for a longer period”
4. Regarding the crypto market: somewhat bearish. Expectations of high interest rates → stronger dollar, funds reluctant to enter high-volatility assets, short-term pressure on BTC/ETH

2. May Day Market Analysis
Short-term focus for May Day
BTC price on the four-hour chart briefly touched support around 75,000, then rebounded. Last time, it touched the 76,000–75,000 range and rebounded to 77,000–78,000. This time, after briefly breaking 75,000, it again reached the 77,000–78,000 range. This area remains a resistance zone, a defensive bearish zone, so the current strategy is to wait for the market to stabilize. The market won’t immediately crash after I turn bearish and then suddenly drop to the target, then rally again—such a scenario is unrealistic. Markets need time to develop. For intraday support levels, continue to watch the 75,000–76,000 range. If it breaks below 75,000, look toward the smaller support zone at 72,600–73,800. Overall, focus on the 70,000–72,000 range for entry points on the daily chart.
ETH shows a similar pattern. Last time, it bounced from support at 2,260 to the 2,330–2,350 range, then retraced. Yesterday, it reached support at 2,220, with a rebound strength consistent with the expected resistance at 2,260–2,300. Now, it depends on the strength of this resistance. Normally, this is the third major resistance zone where a sell-off might occur, so it’s a resistance level that needs to be tested for a pullback. The first support below is at 2,180–2,220, and the last two support levels are at 2,130–2,160 for short-term support. The final entry point for bottom-fishing is in the 2,050–2,130 range, waiting for a market explosion later.

Disclaimer: The above information is for reference only, not trading advice. The crypto market is high risk; participate cautiously.