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Don't always use "on-chain is real-time truth" as a shield. The data you see is mostly: nodes sync first, RPC then relays, indexers queue to enter the database, and finally it appears on your screen. Any delay in any link can turn "just happened" into "just heard about." Especially during market swings, RPC rate limiting + indexing delays make it look fine on the UI, but in reality, several frames have already passed.
So, are the on-chain transfers I see accurate?
Accurate, but not necessarily timely.
Recently, bridges have been hacked again, and oracle errors have caused everyone to shout "wait for confirmation," which basically means collectively acknowledging: what we see "on-chain" takes time to become consensus. Anyway, I now tend to be more conservative in risk judgment, preferring to be a half beat slow rather than being fooled by fake real-time data into catching a falling knife.